Selection of Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle Using Expected Value Analysis

Abstract

Selection of launch vehicle for a geostationary satellite is an important decision for satellite operators. Depending on only to the cost of the launcher may result unexpected consequences. Lifetime of the satellite is determined by the orbit parameters of the launcher. Success probability of the launcher can be deduced statistically by previous launches or using the insurance rate of the market for the selected launcher. Total cost of the satellite project includes insurance rate besides satellite and launcher costs. Design lifetime of a communication satellite is currently 15 years. Manufacturer warrants the operation of the satellite for 15 years via performance incentive or warranty payback mechanisms. But satellites continue to generate revenues during their maneuver lifetime which is more than 15 years. Expected value analysis is a powerful tool to include probabilistic nature of satellite projects. In this study a method proposed to select the best launcher for a given satellite program incuding satellite price, launch cost, insurance rate and lifetime parameters using expected value analysis.