Sensitive products in the Doha negotiations: The case of European and Japanese market access

International audienceNotwithstanding the current slowdown, the geography and composition of international trade are changing fast. We link a macroeconomic growth model and sectoral computable general equilibrium framework in order to project the world economy forward to the year 2035 and assess to what extent current trends in trade are expected to continue. Constructing fully traceable scenarios based on assumptions grounded in the literature, we are also able to isolate the relative impact of key economic drivers. We find that the stakes for developing countries are particularly high: the emergence of new players in the world economy, intensification of South–South trade and diversification into skill-intensive activities may continue only in a dynamic economic and open trade environment. Current trends towards increased regionalisation may be reversed, with multilateral trade relationships gaining in importance. Hypothetical mega-regionals could slow down, but not frustrate the prevalence of multilateralism. Continuing technological progress is likely to have the biggest impact on future economic developments around the globe. Population dynamics are influential as well: for some countries, upskilling will be crucial; for others, labour shortages may be addressed through migration. Several developing countries would benefit from increased capital mobility; others will only diversify into dynamic sectors, when trade costs are further reduced

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“… See Gouel et al. () for development of MIRAGE at the product level and Balistreri et al. () for an inclusion of firm heterogeneity. …”

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confidence: 99%

Simulating World Trade in the Decades Ahead: Driving Forces and Policy Implications

2016

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“…However, the energy sector, in this paper, is considered as an intermediate con sumption and not as a factor in the value added. The Mirage model has been extensively used to assess the impact of trade policies (see Bouët and Laborde, 2010;Gouel et al, 2011) or to examine consequences on environment policies (Laborde and Valin, 2012). The MIRAGE model documentation is available at http://www.mirage-model.eu.…”

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Mega-Deals: What Consequences for Sub-Saharan Africa?

Guimbard

Goff

2015

SSRN Journal

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“…Francois and Martin (2003) study the history of tariff negotiations and introduce a new tariff liberalization rule, the extended Swiss formula, which is related to our second rule. A range of studies, such as Bouet et al (2007), Fontagné et al (2005), Gouel et al (2011) and others, examine different proposals for tariff liberalization under the Doha Round, including different formulae and the treatment of tariff peaks, in terms of their trade and welfare impacts.…”

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confidence: 99%

Tariff spillovers and new rules for multilateral tariff negotiations

2024

WTO Working Papers

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Some countries have voiced unease about differences between their own tariff rates and those of major trading partners, calling for more "reciprocity". These calls raise the question how large the negative spillover effects of countries' tariffs on others have become over time. Given a presumed sense of "reciprocity" at the end of the Uruguay Round and for subsequent WTO accessions, an important question for the future of multilateral trade negotiations may be how cross-cutting formulae or "rules" could be developed that might address such spillovers. In this paper we (i) analyze the spillover effects of tariffs and (ii) explore possible tariff liberalization rules and their economic effects, employing the WTO Global Trade Model. We measure the spillover effects of tariffs by the export or terms of trade losses incurred by trading partners. The analysis shows that there are large differences in the per capita spillover effects of tariff rates and that about 70% of the spillover effects can be explained by initial tariff rates, the share in global imports, population, and a product's trade elasticity. Five possible tariff liberalization rules are introduced, with the fifth one being based on the determinants of the negative spillover effects on other countries. Simulating the tariff liberalization rules shows that they would address such spillovers to different extents and lead to global export increases of about 3%, with increases of more than 20% for some countries. Real income effects are positive in most regions, although welfare does not increase in all regions because of negative terms of trade effects. Under the fifth rule, real income and terms of trade effects are related to the adverse spillover effects imposed in other countries, i.e. regions generating larger adverse spillover effects benefit from smaller real income gains or incur larger real income losses. However, this relation is not perfect, suggesting that flexibility may be needed in the implementation of the rule.Keywords: Tariff negotiations; reciprocity; terms of trade effects; CGE-modelling JEL codes: F14 Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors. They do not represent the positions or opinions of the WTO or its Members and are without prejudice to Members' rights and obligations under the WTO. Any errors are attributable to the authors. * Thanks are due to Sofia Schroeter for excellent research assistance, to Edvinas Drevinskas for provision of tariff data, and to Robert Koopman who encouraged us to explore the topic of reciprocity in tariff negotiations.

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Sensitive products in the Doha negotiations: The case of European and Japanese market access

Cited by 14 publications

References 21 publications

Simulating World Trade in the Decades Ahead: Driving Forces and Policy Implications

Simulating World Trade in the Decades Ahead: Driving Forces and Policy Implications

Mega-Deals: What Consequences for Sub-Saharan Africa?

Tariff spillovers and new rules for multilateral tariff negotiations

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