Sensitivity analysis of lake mass balance in discontinuous permafrost: the example of disappearing Twelvemile Lake, Yukon Flats, Alaska (USA)

Jepsen, Steven M.; Voss, Clifford I.; Walvoord, M. A.; Rose, Joshua R.; Minsley, Burke J.; Smith, Bruce D.

doi:10.1007/s10040-012-0896-5

Cited by 36 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Seasonal thaw and surface runoff cause locally reduced resistivity values in the upper 1 m, which is still too shallow to resolve adequately using AEM data. In practice, shallow thaw and sporadic permafrost trends are observed to greater depths in many locations, including inactive or abandoned channels (Jepsen et al, 2013b). To simulate these types of features, the shallow resistivity structure of the 6 m deep hydrostatic lake scenario at 1000 years is manually modified to include three synthetic "channels".…”

Section: Near-surface Resolutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of airborne geophysical data to sublacustrine and near-surface permafrost thaw

Minsley¹,

Wellman²,

Walvoord

et al. 2015

The Cryosphere

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Abstract.A coupled hydrogeophysical forward and inverse modeling approach is developed to illustrate the ability of frequency-domain airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data to characterize subsurface physical properties associated with sublacustrine permafrost thaw during lake-talik formation. Numerical modeling scenarios are evaluated that consider non-isothermal hydrologic responses to variable forcing from different lake depths and for different hydrologic gradients. A novel physical property relationship connects the dynamic distribution of electrical resistivity to ice saturation and temperature outputs from the SUTRA groundwater simulator with freeze-thaw physics. The influence of lithology on electrical resistivity is controlled by a surface conduction term in the physical property relationship. Resistivity models, which reflect changes in subsurface conditions, are used as inputs to simulate AEM data in order to explore the sensitivity of geophysical observations to permafrost thaw. Simulations of sublacustrine talik formation over a 1000-year period are modeled after conditions found in the Yukon Flats, Alaska. Synthetic AEM data are analyzed with a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that quantifies geophysical parameter uncertainty and resolution. Major lithological and permafrost features are well resolved by AEM data in the examples considered. The subtle geometry of partial ice saturation beneath lakes during talik formation cannot be resolved using AEM data, but the gross characteristics of sub-lake resistivity models reflect bulk changes in ice content and can identify the presence of a talik. A final synthetic example compares AEM and ground-based electromagnetic responses for their ability to resolve shallow permafrost and thaw features in the upper 1-2 m below ground outside the lake margin.

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Section: Near-surface Resolutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of airborne geophysical data to sublacustrine and near-surface permafrost thaw

Minsley¹,

Wellman²,

Walvoord

et al. 2015

The Cryosphere

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“…Lakes in the Yukon Flats typically depend on recharge from spring river ice breakup flooding events [23]. In recent years several studies have analyzed long-term inter-annual trends in surface water extent to assess a potential role of thawing permafrost [22][23][24][25][26]. …”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the relationship between floodplain inundation and changes in main stem discharge is not well understood due to the complexity of flow patterns and limited in situ observations of large wetland regions [8,52]. In high latitude wetlands such as the Yukon Flats, permafrost can further complicate these patterns by acting as a barrier between the surface and groundwater systems [13,19,20,24,53,54]. While the summer 2016 Planet acquisitions lack sufficient temporal sampling to fully address these questions, the observed patterns nonetheless enable general characterization of floodplain connectivity across our Yukon Flats study area (Figures 8 and 9).…”

Section: River-floodplain Connectivity Of the Yukon Flatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The presence of permafrost tends to impede infiltration of lake water to groundwater systems, plausibly contributing to lake stability in this area. Development of taliks (thaw bulbs) beneath lakes promotes infiltration, and permafrost research has identified through-talik formation and permafrost degradation around some lakes in the Yukon Flats [24,31,58]. Lakes underlain by through-taliks are connected to the groundwater system, enabling water loss to the sub-surface [19,21,54].…”

Section: River-floodplain Connectivity Of the Yukon Flatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Permafrost acts as a barrier between the surface hydrologic system and the groundwater system, meaning that in discontinuous permafrost, the surface water and groundwater systems are connected where permafrost is absent but disconnected where permafrost is present [19,21]. In high latitude wetlands underlain by discontinuous permafrost, such as the Yukon Flats in central Alaska, decadal-scale analyses (>30 years) of interannual patterns in lake area have noted variable changes in surface water extent due to a combination of thawing permafrost, shortening spring duration of snow cover, changing water balance and underlying hydrogeology [22][23][24][25][26]. Despite evidence that sub-seasonal cycles strongly influence patterns in surface water extent, potentially obscuring climate-related trends [23], little research has focused on fine-scale, sub-seasonal variability in these areas, due to the absence of sufficient high resolution, high frequency imagery.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tracking Dynamic Northern Surface Water Changes with High-Frequency Planet CubeSat Imagery

et al. 2017

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Recent deployments of CubeSat imagers by companies such as Planet may advance hydrological remote sensing by providing an unprecedented combination of high temporal and high spatial resolution imagery at the global scale. With approximately 170 CubeSats orbiting at full operational capacity, the Planet CubeSat constellation currently offers an average revisit time of <1 day for the Arctic and near-daily revisit time globally at 3 m spatial resolution. Such data have numerous potential applications for water resource monitoring, hydrologic modeling and hydrologic research. Here we evaluate Planet CubeSat imaging capabilities and potential scientific utility for surface water studies in the Yukon Flats, a large sub-Arctic wetland in north central Alaska. We find that surface water areas delineated from Planet imagery have a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of <11% and geolocation accuracy of <10 m as compared with manual delineations from high resolution (0.3-0.5 m) WorldView-2/3 panchromatic satellite imagery. For a 625 km 2 subarea of the Yukon Flats, our time series analysis reveals that roughly one quarter of 268 lakes analyzed responded to changes in Yukon River discharge over the period 23 June-1 October 2016, one half steadily contracted, and one quarter remained unchanged. The spatial pattern of observed lake changes is heterogeneous. While connections to Yukon River control the hydrologically connected lakes, the behavior of other lakes is complex, likely driven by a combination of intricate flow paths, underlying geology and permafrost. Limitations of Planet CubeSat imagery include a lack of an automated cloud mask, geolocation inaccuracies, and inconsistent radiometric calibration across multiple platforms. Although these challenges must be addressed before Planet CubeSat imagery can achieve its full potential for large-scale hydrologic research, we conclude that CubeSat imagery offers a powerful new tool for the study and monitoring of dynamic surface water bodies.

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New permafrost is forming around shrinking Arctic lakes, but will it last?

Briggs

Walvoord

McKenzie

et al. 2014

Geophysical Research Letters

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Widespread lake shrinkage in cold regions has been linked to climate warming and permafrost thaw. Permafrost aggradation, however, has been observed within the margins of recently receded lakes, in seeming contradiction of climate warming. Here permafrost aggradation dynamics are examined at Twelvemile Lake, a retreating lake in interior Alaska. Observations reveal patches of recently formed permafrost within the dried lake margin, colocated with discrete bands of willow shrub. We test ecological succession, which alters shading, infiltration, and heat transport, as the driver of aggradation using numerical simulation of variably saturated groundwater flow and heat transport with phase change (i.e., freeze-thaw). Simulations support permafrost development under current climatic conditions, but only when net effects of vegetation on soil conditions are incorporated, thus pointing to the role of ecological succession. Furthermore, model results indicate that permafrost aggradation is transitory with further climate warming, as new permafrost thaws within seven decades.

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Sensitivity analysis of lake mass balance in discontinuous permafrost: the example of disappearing Twelvemile Lake, Yukon Flats, Alaska (USA)

Cited by 36 publications

References 38 publications

Sensitivity of airborne geophysical data to sublacustrine and near-surface permafrost thaw

Sensitivity of airborne geophysical data to sublacustrine and near-surface permafrost thaw

Tracking Dynamic Northern Surface Water Changes with High-Frequency Planet CubeSat Imagery

New permafrost is forming around shrinking Arctic lakes, but will it last?

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