Sensitivity Analysis of Mathematical Model for Malaria Transmission with Saturated Incidence Rate

Abstract

Malaria is a life threatening vector borne disease caused by parasites that are transmitted to people through the bites of infected female Anopheles mosquitoes. In this paper, we study and analyze mathematical model of ordinary differential equations for human and mosquito with saturated incidence function. The stability of the system was analyzed for the Malaria-Free Equilibrium (MFE) through the reproduction number R 0 which was obtained using the next generation matrix method. The MFE is locally asymptotical stable if R 0 < 1 and unstable otherwise. Moreover, our sensitivity analysis shows that the most effective parameter is, a, mosquito biting rate and the less effective one is α h , human progression rate. Our numerical simulations show that, reducing the biting rate of mosquitoes will reduce the number of exposed humans as well as infected individuals and increase the number of treated individuals. This can be achieved by increasing the proportion of antibodies.

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