Sensitivity of Glaciers and Small Ice Caps to Greenhouse Warming

Oerlemans, J.; Fortuin, J. P. F.

doi:10.1126/science.258.5079.115

Cited by 399 publications

(348 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…In spite of the relatively small contribution of glaciers to the total terrestrial storage of ice, their sensitivity to changes in climate means that they are important contributors to decadal and longer timescale variations in sea level (Oerlemans and Fortuin, 1992;Dyurgerov and Meier, 1997). The current worldwide reduction apparent in the volume of glaciers is estimated to have already made a significant contribution to global sea level rise over the last 100 years.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection of a possible change point in atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic and its effect on Scandinavian glacier mass balance

Fealy

Sweeney

2005

Int. J. Climatol.

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Climate change, resulting from an increase in global temperatures, is likely to have a large impact on glaciers and glacier meltwater during the course of the present century resulting in significant contributions to sea level rise. Globally, glaciers are in retreat, partly as a response to the return to warmer conditions after the last neoglacial period during the Little Ice Age but also because of the almost continuous increases evident in global temperature since then. In contrast, Scandinavian glaciers, particularly maritime glaciers, were maintaining equilibrium or advancing over the closing decades of the last century possibly resulting from an increased moisture flux over the North Atlantic. While the more continental glaciers were still declining, the rate of decline diminished during the late 1980s. This coincides with an accelerated rate of increase evident on the maritime glaciers in southwestern Norway. A change point in atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic is identified as having occurred during this period. This change point is associated with an intensification of westerlies over Europe, particularly since the late 1980s, which significantly contributes to increases in temperature and precipitation over northern Europe while suppressing the penetration of warm, moist air into more southern European locations. Regional variations in temperature and precipitation from selected Scandinavian stations are also found to be consistent with the changes in the large-scale modes of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection of a possible change point in atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic and its effect on Scandinavian glacier mass balance

Fealy

Sweeney

2005

Int. J. Climatol.

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“…Although only covering ∼3% of the earth's total glacierized land area (Meier, 1984;Arendt and others, 2002), small glaciers and ice caps (excluding the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets) play an important role in assessing and predicting sea level change on decadal to centurial timescales (Oerlemans and Fortuin, 1992). Previous studies have indicated that these glaciers, whose shrinkage has tended to accelerate with the ongoing climate warming (Kaser, 1999;Arendt and others, 2002;Paul and others, 2004;Meier and others, 2007;Yao and others, 2012), contributed ∼20-60% to rising sea level in different periods (Meier, 1984;Kaser and others, 2006;Meier and others, 2007;Gardner and others, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacier mass variation and its effect on surface runoff in the Beida River catchment during 1957–2013

Wang

Tian

2017

J. Glaciol.

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ABSTRACT. Using in-situ measured data from Qiyi Glacier, in combination with meteorological and runoff data from stations, a distributed degree-day model was developed for 631 investigated glaciers in the Beida River catchment to explore glacier mass change and its effect on streamflow. The results showed that the average mass balance was −272 ± 67 mm w.e. a −1 , with an ice loss of 3.99 Gt during 1957-2013. Assuming a continuous linear trend, equilibrium line altitude rose by 242 m. Compared with morpho-topographic variables, climatic control is a more important factor affecting glacier change. Mass-balance sensitivity to air temperature was −239 mm w.e.°C −1 a −1 , while to precipitation it was +1.1 mm w.e. mm −1 a −1 . That is, a 210 mm increase in precipitation would be needed to compensate for the net mass loss induced by an air temperature increase of 1°C. Average annual glacier meltwater runoff was 1.51 × 10 8 m 3 from 1957 to 2013, accounting for 15.2% of surface runoff. The time series of meltwater runoff changed abruptly in 2000, and its contribution to surface runoff increased from 13.9 to 20.4%.

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“…[2] Arctic ice masses have been recognized as substantial feedback agents regarding the potential changes of climate and ecosystems in the Arctic [Huybrechts et al, 1991;Oerlemans and Fortuin, 1992;Boggild et al, 1994;Mayewski et al, 1993]. Accordingly, the mass balance of Arctic glaciers is likely to become more negative as the climate warms.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measurement and simulation of snow and superimposed ice at the Kongsvegen glacier, Svalbard (Spitzbergen)

Obleitner

Lehning²

2004

J. Geophys. Res.

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[1] Multiyear glaciometeorological data have been collected at about the equilibrium line of Kongsvegen glacier in Svalbard. During the first summer of the investigation period, about 0.6 m of superimposed ice (SI) was built up because of effective meltwater refreeze upon the former glacier surface. Thus winter accumulation is completely retained from runoff, and latent heat is released equivalent to 27% of July net radiation. This ice layer, as well as part of the former year's ice, disappeared during the subsequent summer. Using a physically based snow model, the evolution of the snow pack properties as well as the observed amount of SI is successfully reproduced. However, the latter is only possible by modifying the model's water transport routine to also treat effects of ponding water, which have been observed. Two distinct phases of SI formation can be distinguished. A first one (15 cm) is initiated as soon as meltwater has penetrated to the underlying cold glacier ice. Toward the end of the melt period, however, the remaining body of SI is rapidly formed because of intense atmospheric cooling. The availability of ponding water plays an essential role in this context. During the following summer the initial refreezing phase was terminated by exposure of the newly built SI at the surface. The whole amount of the actual year and the major part of the former year's SI was melted then. A positive ice-albedo feedback process plays an additional role there. Sensitivity studies prove that the model results and their interpretation do not critically depend on possible uncertainties of input data and model parameters. Despite their local nature these studies are valuable steps toward understanding the regional distribution of SI on Arctic glaciers as well as their climate sensitivity. Remote sensing studies indicate that SI presently covers 35% of Kongsvegen's surface area.

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Sensitivity of Glaciers and Small Ice Caps to Greenhouse Warming

Cited by 399 publications

References 6 publications

Detection of a possible change point in atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic and its effect on Scandinavian glacier mass balance

Detection of a possible change point in atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic and its effect on Scandinavian glacier mass balance

Glacier mass variation and its effect on surface runoff in the Beida River catchment during 1957–2013

Measurement and simulation of snow and superimposed ice at the Kongsvegen glacier, Svalbard (Spitzbergen)

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