Sensitivity of modern and Holocene floods to climate change

Knox, James C.

doi:10.1016/s0277-3791(99)00074-8

Cited by 414 publications

(282 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…These findings do not preclude the role of additional factors in Cahokia's decline, including more localized high-frequency hydroclimatic variability recorded by dendroclimatological data (7). Instead, our work emphasizes the sensitivity of fluvial systems to climatic variability (28,29,44) and shows that variation in flood frequency and magnitude may be an underappreciated but key factor in the development and disintegration of early agricultural societies, even in temperate regions (e.g., refs. 45 and 46).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…2) The frequency of large floods in the central Mississippi River has shifted over the last two millennia (Fig. 3) as a result of atmospheric circulation patterns that promote or suppress precipitation over midcontinental North America (28)(29)(30). At Cahokia, large floods are concentrated in two intervals from ca.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A.D. 600 and A.D. 1200, when more arid conditions are documented across central North America (30)(31)(32)(33)(34). The close correspondence between midcontinental aridity and Mississippi River flood history implies that decreased moisture availability over the Missouri and Upper Mississippi River basins inhibited the intensive runoff from rainfall and/or snowmelt required to generate large floods (28,29) that would have inundated Cahokia, neighboring settlements, and croplands in the floodplain of the central Mississippi River.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cahokia’s emergence and decline coincided with shifts of flood frequency on the Mississippi River

Muñoz¹,

Gruley²,

Massie³

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

107

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Here we establish the timing of major flood events of the central Mississippi River over the last 1,800 y, using floodwater sediments deposited in two floodplain lakes. Shifts in the frequency of high-magnitude floods are mediated by moisture availability over midcontinental North America and correspond to the emergence and decline of Cahokia—a major late prehistoric settlement in the Mississippi River floodplain. The absence of large floods from A.D. 600 to A.D. 1200 facilitated agricultural intensification, population growth, and settlement expansion across the floodplain that are associated with the emergence of Cahokia as a regional center around A.D. 1050. The return of large floods after A.D. 1200, driven by waning midcontinental aridity, marks the onset of sociopolitical reorganization and depopulation that culminate in the abandonment of Cahokia and the surrounding region by A.D. 1350. Shifts in the frequency and magnitude of flooding may be an underappreciated but critical factor in the formation and dissolution of social complexity in early agricultural societies.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cahokia’s emergence and decline coincided with shifts of flood frequency on the Mississippi River

Muñoz¹,

Gruley²,

Massie³

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

107

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“…Streams and their floodplains react sensitively to climatic changes (Porter et al, 1992;Macklin, 1999;Knox, 2000), though differences in climate, vegetation, soil conditions, and watershed position can cause large variations in these responses (Knox, 1983). We know that climatic changes during the P-H transition triggered sweeping changes in the river systems of northwestern Europe by altering effective moisture, vegetation cover, sediment supply, and permafrost conditions (Frenzel, 1995;Collins et al, 1996;Huisink, 1997;Tebbens et al, 1999;Bridgland, 2000); however, there are no previous studies of how climate change affected fluvial geomorphology on Alaska's North Slope during the P-H transition.…”

Section: Paleohydrologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses of an arctic landscape to Lateglacial and early Holocene climatic changes: the importance of moisture

Mann

Peteet

Reanier³

et al. 2002

Quaternary Science Reviews

117

132

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Many of the physical and biological processes that characterize arctic ecosystems are unique to high latitudes, and their sensitivities to climate change are poorly understood. Stratigraphic records of land-surface processes and vegetation change in the Arctic Foothills of northern Alaska reveal how tundra landscapes responded to climatic changes between 13,000 and 8000 14 C yr BP. Peat deposition began and shrub vegetation became widespread ca. 12,500 14 C yr BP, probably in response to the advent of warmer and wetter climate. Increased slope erosion caused rapid alluviation in valleys, and Populus trees spread northward along braided floodplains before 11,000 14 C yr BP. Lake levels fell and streams incised their floodplains during the Younger Dryas (YD) (11,000-10,000 14 C yr BP). A hiatus in records of Populus suggest that its geographic range contracted, and pollen records of other species suggest a cooler and drier climate during this interval. Basal peats dating to the YD are rare, suggesting that rates of paludification slowed. Immediately after 10,000 14 C yr BP, lake levels rose, streams aggraded rapidly again, intense solifluction occurred, and Populus re-invaded the area. Moist acidic tundra vegetation was widespread by 8500 14 C yr BP along with wet, organic-rich soils. Most of these landscape-scale effects of climatic change involved changes in moisture. Although low temperature is the most conspicuous feature of arctic climate, shifts in effective moisture may be the proximate cause for many of the impacts that climate change has in arctic regions. r

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“…Climate variability may affect both flood frequency and magnitude with greater sensitivity on largest "rare" floods (50-year flood and higher) than on smaller frequent floods (2-year floods; Knox, 1993Knox, , 2000. The study of historical floods in the context of climate variability has been focussed on high-quality complete data sets classified according to severity of damage (Sturm et al, 2001) to infer changes in flood frequency, meteorological causes and seasonality (Glaser et al, 2010).…”

Section: Flood Magnitude Sensitivity To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative historical hydrology in Europe

Benito

Brázdil

Herget

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In recent decades, the quantification of flood hydrological characteristics (peak discharge, hydrograph shape, and runoff volume) from documentary evidence has gained scientific recognition as a method to lengthen flood records of rare and extreme events. This paper describes the methodological evolution of quantitative historical hydrology under the influence of developments in hydraulics and statistics. In the 19th century, discharge calculations based on flood marks were the only source of hydrological data for engineering design, but were later left aside in favour of systematic gauge records and conventional hydrological procedures. In the last two decades, there has been growing scientific and public interest in understanding long-term patterns of rare floods, in maintaining the flood heritage and memory of extremes, and developing methods for deterministic and statistical application to different scientific and engineering problems. A compilation of 46 case studies across Europe with reconstructed discharges demonstrates that (1) in most cases present flood magnitudes are not unusual within the context of the last millennium, although recent floods may exceed past floods in some temperate European rivers (e.g. the Vltava and Po rivers); (2) the frequency of extreme floods has decreased since the 1950s, although some rivers (e.g. the Gardon and Ouse rivers) show a reactivation of rare events over the last two decades. There is a great potential for gaining understanding of individual extreme events based on a combined multiproxy approach (palaeoflood and documentary records) providing high-resolution time flood series and their environmental and climatic changes; and for developing non-systematic and non-stationary statistical models based on relations of past floods with external and internal covariates under natural low-frequency climate variability.

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Sensitivity of modern and Holocene floods to climate change

Cited by 414 publications

References 56 publications

Cahokia’s emergence and decline coincided with shifts of flood frequency on the Mississippi River

Cahokia’s emergence and decline coincided with shifts of flood frequency on the Mississippi River

Responses of an arctic landscape to Lateglacial and early Holocene climatic changes: the importance of moisture

Quantitative historical hydrology in Europe

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