Sequencing to ratchet up climate policy stringency

Pahle, Michael; Burtraw, Dallas; Flachsland, Christian; Kelsey, Nina; Biber, Eric; Meckling, Jonas; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Zysman, John

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0287-6

Cited by 185 publications

(130 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…The fast progressing anthropogenic climate change [195] requires a fast and drastic response in radical GHG emission reductions to zero, the sooner the better, so that the temperature rise can be limited to 1.5 • C compared to pre-industrial levels. Progress in tackling this historic challenge is much too slow and GHG emissions reduction is not on track at all [196]. The Fridays For Future global youth movement has created a massive momentum within a very short period of time, started in August 2018 by Greta Thunberg.…”

Section: Outlook and Further Investigationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World

et al. 2019

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The pivotal target of the Paris Agreement is to keep temperature rise well below 2 °C above the pre-industrial level and pursue efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C. To meet this target, all energy-consuming sectors, including the transport sector, need to be restructured. The transport sector accounted for 19% of the global final energy demand in 2015, of which the vast majority was supplied by fossil fuels (around 31,080 TWh). Fossil-fuel consumption leads to greenhouse gas emissions, which accounted for about 8260 MtCO2eq from the transport sector in 2015. This paper examines the transportation demand that can be expected and how alternative transportation technologies along with new sustainable energy sources can impact the energy demand and emissions trend in the transport sector until 2050. Battery-electric vehicles and fuel-cell electric vehicles are the two most promising technologies for the future on roads. Electric ships and airplanes for shorter distances and hydrogen-based synthetic fuels for longer distances may appear around 2030 onwards to reduce the emissions from the marine and aviation transport modes. The rail mode will remain the least energy-demanding, compared to other transport modes. An ambitious scenario for achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 is applied, also demonstrating the very high relevance of direct and indirect electrification of the transport sector. Fossil-fuel demand can be reduced to zero by 2050; however, the electricity demand is projected to rise from 125 TWhel in 2015 to about 51,610 TWhel in 2050, substantially driven by indirect electricity demand for the production of synthetic fuels. While the transportation demand roughly triples from 2015 to 2050, substantial efficiency gains enable an almost stable final energy demand for the transport sector, as a consequence of broad electrification. The overall well-to-wheel efficiency in the transport sector increases from 26% in 2015 to 39% in 2050, resulting in a respective reduction of overall losses from primary energy to mechanical energy in vehicles. Power-to-fuels needed mainly for marine and aviation transport is not a significant burden for overall transport sector efficiency. The primary energy base of the transport sector switches in the next decades from fossil resources to renewable electricity, driven by higher efficiency and sustainability.

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Section: Outlook and Further Investigationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World

et al. 2019

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“…These companion policies are more often called “complementary policies” by economists who envision emissions pricing as the primary policy. However, in every case, the pricing policies follow earlier regulatory efforts that employ standards or promote technologies, and these policies are typically maintained and sometimes strengthened with the advent of emissions pricing (Meckling, Sterner, and Wagner 2017, Pahle et al 2017). Hence, we might ask whether or not emissions pricing is a complementary policy.…”

Section: Factors That Explain Downward Trends In Allowance Pricesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recognizing Gravity as a Strong Force in Atmosphere Emissions Markets

Burtraw¹,

Keyes²

2018

Agric. Resour. Econom. Rev.

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Environmental economics has made it possible to estimate prices for air pollution externalities. However, these values are rarely observed in emissions trading markets. Moreover, market outcomes show prices persistently remain below expectations and frequently fall over time. Low allowance prices may appear virtuous, but often reflect poor market design that does not anticipate interaction with other policies, and may undermine confidence in market-based approaches to environmental policy. This paper surveys emissions markets and factors influencing prices, and concludes with a discussion of how market design can anticipate and remedy the strong tendency for low prices.

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“…First, it reflects the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities in providing flexibility regarding the scope of contributors and in accounting for expected future climate damages. Second, it introduces a dynamic forward-looking component that rewards increasing ambition over time (ratcheting-up), similar to policy sequencing to increase stringency over time [13]. Thus, if a country exceeds the average level of ambition, it can thereby reduce its climate finance contribution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A dynamic climate finance allocation mechanism reflecting the Paris Agreement

Egli

Stünzi

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Reaching the goal of the Paris Agreement requires substantial investment. The developed country parties have agreed to provide USD$100 billion in climate finance annually from 2020 to 2025. Ongoing negotiations on post-2025 commitments are likely to exceed that sum and include a broader scope of parties. However, there is no guidance regarding the allocation of contributions. Here, we develop a dynamic mechanism based on two conventional pillars of a burden sharing mechanism: emission responsibility and ability to pay. The mechanism adds dynamic components that reflect the Paris principle to 'ratchet-up' ambition; it rewards countries with ambitious mitigation targets and relieves countries with a high degree of climate vulnerability. Including developed country parties only, we find that ten countries should bear 85% of climate finance contributions (65% if all parties to the Paris Agreement are included). In both scopes, increasing climate ambition is rewarded. If the EU increased its emission reduction target from 40% to 55% by 2030, member states could reduce their climate finance contributions by up to 3.3%. The proposed mechanism allows for an inclusion of sub-, supra-or non-state actors. For example, we find a contribution of USD$3.3 billion annually for conventionally excluded emissions from international aviation and shipping.

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Sequencing to ratchet up climate policy stringency

Cited by 185 publications

References 64 publications

Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World

Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World

Recognizing Gravity as a Strong Force in Atmosphere Emissions Markets

A dynamic climate finance allocation mechanism reflecting the Paris Agreement

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