Serological testing in addition to PCR screening for the re-opening of American colleges and universities: potential for cost-savings without compromising pandemic mitigation

Abstract

Importance. The addition of a serological testing could reduce the overall testing costs of a PCR-based SARS-CoV-2 testing reopening plan for colleges/universities in the United States, without compromising the efficacy of the testing plan. Objectives. To determine whether a college/university reopening SARS-CoV-2 testing plan that includes serological testing can be cost-saving compared to a PCR-only testing. Design, Setting, and Participants: We assessed costs of serological testing in addition to PCR testing under various scenarios of university sizes (2000, 10,000, and 40,000) and epidemic conditions (initial antibody prevalence 2.5-15%; cumulative SARS-CoV-2 incidence during the school year 5-30%) of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States. We estimated total testing costs and relative percentage of cost-savings of different screening (i.e. targeted/ universal) and testing (i.e. in-sourcing/out-sourcing) scenarios between September 2020-May 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: Testing costs of serological testing and PCR testing, Relative percentage of cost saving by including serology testing in addition to PCR testing. Results: Including baseline serology testing alongside routine regular PCR testing can reduce total test volumes and related costs throughout the school year. While the total testing cost is likely much lower if regular PCR testing is insourced compared to outsourced ($5 million vs $34 million for university size 10,000), including serologic testing could achieve the up to 20% cost-savings relative to PCR testing alone. The insourcing of serological testing when PCR testing is insourced can achieve greater cost-savings under high initial antibody prevalence (>5%) and cumulative incidence throughout the school year (>10%) at medium and large sized universities. If PCR testing is outsourced, however, the inclusion of serological testing becomes always preferred in most university sizes and epidemic conditions. Conclusions and Relevance: While regular PCR testing alone is the preferred strategy for containing epidemics, including serology testing may help achieve cost-savings if outbreaks are anticipated, or if baseline seropositivity is high.