Serum insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3 as a promising diagnostic and prognostic biomarker in esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma

Abstract

Background Esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma (EJA) lacks serum biomarkers to assist in diagnosis and prognosis. Here, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic value of serum insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3 (IGFBP3) in EJA patients. Methods 320 participants were recruited from November 2016 to January 2020, who were randomly divided into a training cohort (112 normal controls and 102 EJA patients including 24 early-stage patients) and a validation cohort (56 normal controls and 50 EJA patients including 12 early-stage patients). We used receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) to evaluate diagnostic value. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index). Results Serum IGFBP3 levels were significantly lower in early-stage EJA or EJA patients than those in controls (P < 0.01). Measurement of serum IGFBP3 demonstrated an area under curve of 0.819, specificity 90.18% and sensitivity 43.14% in training cohort. Similar results were observed in validation cohort (0.804, 87.50%, 42.00%). Importantly, serum IGFBP3 had a satisfactory diagnostic value for early-stage EJA (0.822, 90.18%, 45.83% and 0.811, 84.48%, 50.00% in training and validation cohorts, respectively). Furthermore, survival analysis demonstrated that lower serum IGFBP3 level was related to poor prognosis (P < 0.05). Cox multivariate analysis revealed that serum IGFBP3 was an independent prognostic factor (HR = 0.468, P = 0.005). Compared with TNM stage, a nomogram based on serum IGFBP3, tumor size and TNM stage indicated an improved C-index in prognostic prediction (0.625 vs. 0.735, P = 0.001). Conclusions We found that serum IGFBP3 was a potential diagnostic and prognostic marker of EJA. Meanwhile, the nomogram might predict the prognosis of EJA more accurately and efficiently.

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