Ship Intrusion Collision Risk Model Based on a Dynamic Elliptical Domain

Abstract

To improve navigation safety in maritime environments, a key step is to reduce the influence of human factors on the risk assessment of ship collisions by automating the decision-making process as much as possible. This paper optimizes a dynamic elliptical ship domain based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, combines the relative motion between ships in different encounter situations and the level of ship intrusion in the domain, and proposes a ship intrusion collision risk (SICR) model. The simulation results show that the optimized ship domain meets the visualization requirements, and the intrusion model has good collision risk perception ability, which can be used as the evaluation standard of ship collision risk: when the SICR is 0.5–0.6, the ship can establish a collaborative collision avoidance decision-making relationship with other ships, and the action ship can take effective collision avoidance action at the best time when the SICR is between 0.3 and 0.5. The SICR model can give navigators a more accurate and rapid perception of navigation risks, enabling timely maneuvering decisions, and improving navigation safety.