Show Me the Money! Process Modeling in Pharma from the Investor’s Point of View

Abstract

Process modeling in pharma is gradually gaining momentum in process development but budget restrictions are growing. We first examine whether and how current practices rationalize within a decision process framework with a fictitious investor facing a decision problem subject to incomplete information. We then develop an algorithmic procedure for investment evaluation on both monetary and diffusion-of-innovation fronts. Our methodology builds upon discounted cash flow analysis and Bayesian inference and utilizes the Rogers diffusion of innovation paradigm for computing lower expected returns. We also introduce a set of intangible metrics for quantifying the level of diffusion of process modeling within an organization.

Model-Based Tools for Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Processes

“…In "Show Me the Money! Process Modeling in Pharma from the Investor's Point of View" [9], the authors provide an algorithmic methodology that allows for the development of detailed business studies. They discuss an easy-to-use methodology that can help an investor evaluate an investment in modeling and simulation systematically.…”