Simulated epidemiological and economic effects of measures to reduce piglet supply during a classical swine fever epidemic in the Netherlands

Mangen, Marie-Josée J.; Nielen, Michel W. F.; Burrell, Alison

doi:10.20506/rst.22.3.1432

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…The HRP is very important when calculating the size of an outbreak because it provides tbe time framework dudng wbicb tbe contamination is spread freely without being detected (22). In the case of a classical swine fever outbreak, the length of tbe HRP is an important indicator for the possible size of the outbreak (29). A longer HRP could imply an increased impact of an incident, in terms of both the number of businesses affected and the size of the financial impact.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Financial Impact of a Dioxin Incident in the Dutch Dairy Chain

Alcoser

Velthuis

Hoogenboom³

et al. 2011

Journal of Food Protection

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The aim of this study was to quantify the financial consequences of a milk-dioxin crisis on the stages of the dairy chain involved. The milk dioxin contamination impact model was designed for this purpose and also was used to estimate the net costs of control measures limiting the impact. Results obtained based on the assumption of the worst-case scenario in which the entire daily production of each business unit from feed supplier to milk processor is contaminated suggested that the financial impact of one dioxin incident would be €141.2 million. Another assumption was that the dioxin contamination started at one feed processing plant and was detected 2 weeks after initial contamination (the high-risk period), which would result in the involvement of 714 dairy farms, 26 milk processors, and 2,664 retailers. The stages of the chain that contributed most to the total net costs were the milk processor (76.9%) and the dairy farm (20.5%). If the high-risk period were shorter, i.e., 3 days, the estimated total financial impact decreases to €10.9 million. Thus, early detection of the contamination is crucial for decreasing the number of food businesses involved and lowering the total financial impact. The most influential inputs of the model were the sale price of milk at the processing stage, the daily amount of milk processed per processing plant, the farm-blocking period, and the daily amount of milk produced per farm. However, the effect of these inputs on the total financial impact was less than 10.0%. These results can be used to establish priorities in the application of control measures to limit the financial and public health impacts of a possible food safety incident.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Financial Impact of a Dioxin Incident in the Dutch Dairy Chain

Alcoser

Velthuis

Hoogenboom³

et al. 2011

Journal of Food Protection

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The HRP is very important when calculating the size of an outbreak because it provides the time framework during which the contamination is spread freely without being detected (Horst et al, 1998). In the case of a classical swine fever outbreak, the length of the HRP is an important indicator for the possible size of the outbreak Financial impact of a dioxin incident 60 (Mangen et al, 2003). A longer HRP could imply an increased impact of an incident, in terms of both the number of business affected and the size of the financial impact.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost-effective monitoring of dioxins in agri-production chains

Alcóser¹,

Hugo²

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Feed ingredients and additives used in compound feed for livestock production have been a main cause of various food dioxin incidents in recent decades. Monitoring dioxins in feed and food products is deemed crucial to prevent and diminish the financial impacts of dioxin incidents in agribusiness along the food chain. However, economic aspects embedded in the practical assessment and implementation of dioxin monitoring schemes along the food chain have not yet been analyzed in the scientific literature. Hence this dissertation aims to analyze the costeffectiveness of schemes for monitoring dioxins along the food chain by 1) assessing the financial impact of a dioxin incident in the food chain, 2) determining the cost-effectiveness of monitoring dioxins at a single control point along the food chain 3) determining the cost-effective allocation of resources for monitoring dioxins at different stages of the food chain, and 4) determining the cost-effective allocation of resources at one stage of the food chain considering incoming ingredients and final products. This thesis depicts deterministic and stochastic simulation models to assess the effect of monitoring on the flow of dioxin contaminations in the evaluated food chains (dairy, pork and poultry). Linear programming is the core methodology used in this dissertation to assess the cost-effectiveness of schemes for monitoring dioxins. The main findings indicate that establishing effective monitoring plans requires elevated financial resources.However, the size of the direct financial losses of a dioxin incident suggests that there is substantial financial room for monitoring dioxins along the food chain. Testing dioxins levels in aggregate samples rather than in individual samples is a valid strategy for reducing monitoring costs. However, pooling strategies must take into account the target dioxin concentration in individual samples, in order to avoid dilution of dioxin levels and to ensure the proper detection of a dioxin contamination. Monitoring dioxins in an integrated chain approach rather than in an independent chain actor approach has large economic benefits for the whole chain. For all evaluated contamination scenarios, monitoring dioxins at the feed mill stage contributes, on average, 90% to the total effectiveness of the optimal monitoring schemes. 6 7 Acknowledgements

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Cross border Classical Swine Fever control: Improving Dutch and German crisis management systems by an integrated public-private approach

et al. 2008

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The objective of this research approach is to analyse in which ways crisis management measures against Classical Swine Fever (CSF) can be improved by a public private cross border model. A core activity contains the analysis of information and communication systems: In a case study it has been empirically analysed if a sufficient supply of public and private information enables crisis managers at both sides of the Dutch-German border area to take decisions about CSF control more efficient. At the end of this approach a new crisis management model had been developed. One of the most important aspects thereby is the assessment of data: (1) within private quality management systems in normal times according to the benefit for public management tasks in times of crisis and (2) within public crisis management systems according to the benefit for cross-border CSF-control activities. To this effect two different methodological approaches have been combined within the model: (1) a method to identify and illustrate public actors and their options in crisis management decision making and (2) a system of communication and information exchange between public and private as well as Dutch and German actors (engage & exchange model) which permit to collect and to evaluate data in addition for a predefined time period are activated.

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Simulated epidemiological and economic effects of measures to reduce piglet supply during a classical swine fever epidemic in the Netherlands

Cited by 7 publications

References 10 publications

Financial Impact of a Dioxin Incident in the Dutch Dairy Chain

Financial Impact of a Dioxin Incident in the Dutch Dairy Chain

Cost-effective monitoring of dioxins in agri-production chains

Cross border Classical Swine Fever control: Improving Dutch and German crisis management systems by an integrated public-private approach

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