Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Density Changes from 1980 to 2016 in Shandong Province Dry Farmlands Using the CENTURY Model

Tang, Min; Wang, Shihang; Zhao, Mingsong; Qin, Falyu; Liu, Xiaoyu

doi:10.3390/su12135384

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…On this premise, the model is run for thousands of years, and the events occurring in the simulation process are arranged through the "EVENT.100" le. Then, by adjusting the parameters of each stage, the simulated value at the end of initialization was close to our measured value (Tang et al, 2020). We obtained the localized CENTURY model so as to suitable for Gannan Alpine meadow.…”

Section: Century Modelmentioning

confidence: 56%

Spatio-temporal Simulation and Statistical Analysis of Soil Total Nitrogen in Alpine Meadow of Gannan

张,

Zhang,

Jia

2023

Preprint

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To determine the temporal and spatial characteristics of soil nitrogen in the alpine meadow of Gannan, China, the contents of soil organic nitrogen, mineral nitrogen and soil total nitrogen in Gannan alpine meadow from 1971 to 2020 were simulated based on the localized CENTURY model, on this basis, the spatial and temporal distribution of soil nitrogen of the study area was visualized. The influence of various environmental factors on soil nitrogen in the alpine meadow of Gannan was analyzed. The results show that from 1971 to 2020, the soil organic nitrogen in the study area has moderate spatial variability. Active soil organic nitrogen pool and chronic soil organic nitrogen pool accounted for 11.2% and 39.8% of total soil organic nitrogen, respectively. The inert soil organic nitrogen pool accounts for 49.0% of the total organic nitrogen in the soil. In spatial distribution, the total organic nitrogen and total mineral nitrogen in the alpine meadow of Gannan showed a decreasing trend from west to east, and the total mineral nitrogen content in the soil decreased significantly with the increase of soil depth. Correlation analysis of soil nitrogen and environmental factors and structural equation model showed that precipitation, elevation, soil organic matter content and silt content had positive correlation with soil organic nitrogen and mineral nitrogen contents. The effects of sand content and temperature on soil organic nitrogen and mineral nitrogen contents were negatively correlated.

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Section: Century Modelmentioning

confidence: 56%

Spatio-temporal Simulation and Statistical Analysis of Soil Total Nitrogen in Alpine Meadow of Gannan

张,

Zhang,

Jia

2023

Preprint

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“…Some studies using the CENTURY model can accurately simulate the SOC content and its dynamics and applicability in different regions under different changing conditions [35,36]. A number of studies have fully demonstrated the feasibility of the CENTURY model in China and the accuracy of SOC prediction [37,38]. According to others, the CENTURY model is reliable for predicting the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems [39].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics in Postfire Boreal Forests of China by Incorporating High-Resolution Remote Sensing Data and Field Measurement

Hu,

Yu,

Dou

et al. 2023

Fire

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Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an important component of the ecosystem carbon pool, and fire is one of the important disturbances in forest ecosystems. With global warming, there has been a gradual increase in boreal forest fires, which has a nonnegligible impact on the SOC dynamics in forests. The CENTURY model was employed in our study to simulate the changes in SOC stocks in boreal forests of the Great Xing’an Mountains, China under different fire severity conditions. Fire severity was represented by the metric of difference normalized burn ratio (dNBR) derived from 30-m Landsat-8 imageries. Changes in forest SOC stocks following fire disturbance were predicted under four future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). We found that the CENTURY model had good results in simulating the SOC stocks in the postfire of China’s boreal forests. Forest SOC dynamics responded differently to fire severities and the larger SOC loss was associated with increasing fire severity. Importantly, a feedback mechanism was found between climate change and SOC stocks, which reduces SOC stocks with increasing temperatures. High-severity forest fires tended to cause serious damage to the SOC pool and delay forest SOC recovery time; after such events, forest SOC stocks cannot be fully recovered to the prefire levels (6.74% loss). In addition, higher CO2 emissions and warmer temperatures significantly affected the recovery of SOC stocks after fire disturbance, resulting in larger SOC losses. Overall, we projected losses of 10.14%, 12.06%, 12.41%, and 15.70% of SOC stocks after high-severity fires in four RCP scenarios, respectively. Our findings emphasize the importance of fire disturbance and climate change on future dynamics of SOC stocks in China’s boreal forests, providing a scientific basis for future boreal forest management and fire management.

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“…For instance, Althoff et al, 2018 [21], estimated an SOCS of 21.0 Mg ha −1 , which was strikingly similar to the average field values observed (20.2 Mg ha −1 ). In addition, for the Shandong province of China, Tang et al [22] estimated the SOC dynamics using the Century model with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 0.722 and a mean error (ME) of 0.37 at p < 0.01. This gives evidence that the Century model promises an effective way of estimating SOC dynamics under a variety of conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating Grassland Carbon Dynamics in Gansu for the Past Fifty (50) Years (1968–2018) Using the Century Model

et al. 2021

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China is one of the countries most impacted by desertification, with Gansu Province in the northwest being one of the most affected areas. Efforts have been made in recent decades to restore the natural vegetation, while also producing food. This has implications for the soil carbon sequestration and, as a result, the country’s carbon budget. Studies of carbon (C) dynamics in this region would help to understand the effect of management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) as well as aboveground biomass (ABVG), and to aid informed decision-making and policy implementation to alleviate the rate of global warming. It would also help to understand the region’s contribution to the national C inventory of China. The CENTURY model, a process-based model that is capable of simulating C dynamics over a long period, has not been calibrated to suit Gansu Province, despite being an effective model for soil C estimation. Using the soil and grassland maps of Gansu, together with weather, soil, and reliable historical data on management practices in the province, we calibrated the CENTURY model for the province’s grasslands. The calibrated model was then used to simulate the C dynamics between 1968 and 2018. The results show that the model is capable of simulating C with significant accuracy. Our measured and observed SOC density (SOCD) and ABVG had correlation coefficients of 0.76 and 0.50, respectively, at p < 0.01. Precipitation correlated with SOCD and ABVG with correlation coefficients of 0.57 and 0.89, respectively, at p < 0.01. The total SOC storage (SOCS) was 436.098 × 106 t C (approximately 0.4356% of the national average) and the average SOCD was 15.75 t C/ha. There was a high ABVG in the southeast and it decreased towards the northwest. The same phenomenon was observed in the spatial distribution of SOCD. Among the soils studied, Hostosols had the highest SOC sequestration rate (25.6 t C/ha) with Gypsisols having the least (7.8 t C/ha). Between 1968 and 2018, the soil carbon stock gradually increased, with the southeast experiencing the greatest increase.

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Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Density Changes from 1980 to 2016 in Shandong Province Dry Farmlands Using the CENTURY Model

Cited by 9 publications

References 25 publications

Spatio-temporal Simulation and Statistical Analysis of Soil Total Nitrogen in Alpine Meadow of Gannan

Spatio-temporal Simulation and Statistical Analysis of Soil Total Nitrogen in Alpine Meadow of Gannan

Simulation of Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics in Postfire Boreal Forests of China by Incorporating High-Resolution Remote Sensing Data and Field Measurement

Simulating Grassland Carbon Dynamics in Gansu for the Past Fifty (50) Years (1968–2018) Using the Century Model

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