Simulating and Modelling the Safety Impact of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles in Mixed Traffic: Platoon Size, Sensor Error, and Path Choice

Abstract

The lack of real-world data on Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) has prompted researchers to rely on simulations to assess their societal impacts. However, few studies address the operational and technological challenges of integrating CAVs into existing transport systems. This paper introduces a new CAV driving model featuring a constant time gap longitudinal control algorithm that accounts for sensor errors and platoon formations of varying sizes. Additionally, it develops a high-level route-based decision-making algorithm for CAV path choice. These algorithms were tested in a calibrated motorway corridor simulation, examining different market penetration rates, platoon sizes, and sensor error scenarios. Traffic conflicts were used as a primary safety performance indicator. The findings indicate that CAV sensors are generally adequate, but optimal platoon sizes vary with market penetration rates. To further explore factors influencing traffic conflicts, a hierarchical Bayesian negative binomial regression model was used. This model revealed that in addition to unobserved heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation, the standard deviation of speeds between lanes and the CAV market penetration rate significantly affect conflict occurrences. These results corroborate the simulation outcomes, enhancing our understanding of CAV deployment impacts on traffic safety.