Simulating low-carbon electricity supply for Australia

Lenzen, Manfred; McBain, Bonnie; Trainer, Ted; Jütte, Silke; Rey-Lescure, Olivier; Huang, Jing

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.06.151

Cited by 89 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…This is mostly due to the 'big gaps' problem of extended cloudy periods during winter (Lenzen et al 2016). More generally, the shift from an electricity system based on 'stored sunlight' (i.e.…”

Section: High-penetration Pv and Storage Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, much of the electricity system scenario literature avoids the problem of large-scale storage by maintaining a significant share of legacy thermal generation capacity at low capacity factor (Budischak et al 2012), or by assuming the ready availability of large-scale biomass-fuelled thermal generation (Lenzen et al 2016). In the context of energy transition feasibility assessment, we note that studies that reduce emissions while retaining legacy generation capacity involve fundamentally different goals to those focused on transition to 100% renewable electricity supply.…”

Section: High-penetration Pv and Storage Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An Exploration of Divergence in EPBT and EROI for Solar Photovoltaics

Palmer

Floyd²

2017

Biophys Econ Resour Qual

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Solar photovoltaics (PV) is widely regarded as one of the most promising renewable energy technologies. Net energy analysis (NEA) is a tool to evaluate the energetic performance of all energy supply technologies, including solar PV. Results across studies can appear to diverge sharply, which leads to contestation of NEA's relevance to energy transition feasibility assessment and contributes to ongoing uncertainty in relation to the critical issue of the sustainability of PV. This study explores how PV NEA approaches differ, including in relation to goal definitions, methodologies and boundaries of analysis. It focuses on two principal NEA metrics, energy return on investment (EROI) and energy payback time (EPBT). Here we show that most of the apparent divergence between studies is accounted for by six factors-life-cycle assessment methodology, age of the primary data, PV cell technology, the treatment of intermittency, equivalence of investment and output energy forms, and assumptions about real-world performance. The apparent divergence in findings between studies can often be traced back to different goal definitions. This study reviews the differing approaches and makes the case that NEA is important for assessing the role of PV in future energy systems, but that findings in the form of EROI or EPBT must be considered with specific reference to the details of the particular study context, and the research questions that it seeks to address. NEA findings in a particular context cannot definitively support general statements about EROI or EPBT of PV electricity in all contexts.

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Section: High-penetration Pv and Storage Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: High-penetration Pv and Storage Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Exploration of Divergence in EPBT and EROI for Solar Photovoltaics

Palmer

Floyd²

2017

Biophys Econ Resour Qual

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“…However, despite the many benefits that renewable energy sources offer, they also tend to be highly variable. As a result, to achieve perfect supply‐demand matching and stability of the grid, power networks with high renewable energy penetration require a higher installed capacity compared with power networks with conventional fossil fuel generation …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing 100%‐renewable grids through shifting residential water‐heater load

Ali¹,

Lenzen

Tyedmers

2019

Int J Energy Res

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Summary A low‐carbon electricity supply for Australia was simulated, and the installed capacity of the electrical grid was optimized by shifting the electricity demand of residential electric water heaters (EWHs). The load‐shifting potential of Australia was estimated for each hour of the simulation period using a nationwide aggregate EWH load model on a 90 × 110 raster grid. The electricity demand of water heaters was shifted from periods of low renewable resource and high demand to periods of high renewable resource and low demand, enabling us to effectively reduce the installed capacity requirements of a 100%‐renewable electricity grid. It was found that by shifting the EWH load by just 1 hour, the electricity demand of Australia could be met using purely renewable electricity at an installed capacity of 145 GW with a capacity factor of 30%, an electricity spillage of 20%, and a generation cost of 15.2 ¢/kWh. A breakdown of the primary energy sources used in our scenario is as follows: 43% wind, 29% concentrated solar thermal power, and 20% utility photovoltaic. Sensitivity analysis suggested that further reduction in installed capacity is possible by increasing the load‐shifting duration as well as the volume and insulation level of the EWH tank.

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“…Storage requirements of VRE are dominated by stretches of low-wind and solar resource (the 'big gaps' problem) (Lenzen et al 2016). The ratio between the average monthly solar insolation between summer and winter varies greatly across geographic regions (PV Education 2016).…”

Section: Storage Requirementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Budischak et al (2012)] or assuming the ready availability of large-scale biomass. For example, Lenzen et al (2016, Table 2) did not employ conventional electrical storage but used concentrated solar thermal with 15 h storage (equating to a theoretical 917 GWh of storage), and generated 16,500 GWh with biofuelled powered gas turbines in a simulation for Australia. Assuming the biofuels were used for seasonal storage equates to 21 days of full-load electrical capacity (equated at average annual demand).…”

Section: Storage Requirementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Framework for Incorporating EROI into Electrical Storage

Palmer

2017

Biophys Econ Resour Qual

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was modelled as a limiting case of VRE plus storage, and is therefore not intended as a comprehensive cost-optimised solution to high-penetration VRE. A shift from an electrical system based mostly on energy stocks to one based mostly on natural flows is constrained by the quantity of storage required, and the quantity of VRE overbuild to charge the stores. The application of the framework shows that the value of electrical storage and overbuild exhibits a marked diminishing returns behaviour at rising VRE penetration and therefore the first units of storage are the most valuable. The framework is intended to stimulate further research into using EROI to better understand the role of VRE and storage in prospective energy transitions.

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Simulating low-carbon electricity supply for Australia

Cited by 89 publications

References 61 publications

An Exploration of Divergence in EPBT and EROI for Solar Photovoltaics

An Exploration of Divergence in EPBT and EROI for Solar Photovoltaics

Optimizing 100%‐renewable grids through shifting residential water‐heater load

A Framework for Incorporating EROI into Electrical Storage

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