Simulating the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Deposition in the Mae Nam Nan Sub-Catchment, Thailand

Abstract

This paper evaluates the possible impacts of climate change and land use change and its combined effects on soil loss and net soil loss (erosion and deposition) in the Mae Nam Nan sub-catchment, Thailand. Future climate from two general circulation models (GCMs) and a regional circulation model (RCM) consisting of HadCM3, NCAR CSSM3 and PRECIS RCM ware downscaled using a delta change approach. Cellular Automata/Markov (CA_Markov) model was used to characterize future land use. Soil loss modeling using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and sedimentation modeling in Idrisi software were employed to estimate soil loss and net soil loss under direct impact (climate change), indirect impact (land use change) and full range of impact (climate and land use change) to generate results at a 10 year interval between 2020 and 2040. Results indicate that soil erosion and deposition increase or decrease, depending on which climate and land use scenarios are considered. The potential for climate change to increase soil loss rate, soil erosion and deposition in future periods was established, whereas considerable decreases in erosion are projected when land use is increased from baseline periods. The combined climate and land use change analysis revealed that land use OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2013, 5 3245 planning could be adopted to mitigate soil erosion and deposition in the future, in conjunction with the projected direct impact of climate change.

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows Using Multi Climate-Models under RCPs—The Case of Mangla Dam in Pakistan

“…Climate models estimate [2][3][4][5][6][7][8] that the global average temperature is likely to increase 4.0 • C by the conclusion of the 21st century [9]. Reliable prediction of climate is pre-requisite to comprehend its impacts on hydrology and water resources [10].…”

Principal Component and Multiple Regression Analyses for the Estimation of Suspended Sediment Yield in Ungauged Basins of Northern Thailand

“…The most vulnerable area is steeply sloping land, which is under cultivation (more than 35% of sloping land). In recent times, human encroachment on forest areas in the upper part of the study area and land use changes with respect to agriculture have become problematic [48].…”

Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Erosivity in the Huai Luang Watershed, Thailand

“…Climate change is expected to impact soil erosion based on factors like precipitation amount, the impact of precipitation intensity on soil moisture and plant growth [15]. The most direct effect of climate change on erosion by water can be expected to be the effect of changes in rainfall erosivity [16][17][18][19]. Thus, an increase in soil erosion can be expected due to the increase in rainfall erosivity.…”

“…Thus, an increase in soil erosion can be expected due to the increase in rainfall erosivity. Table 1 shows earlier studies projecting impacts of climate change on rainfall erosivity [19][20][21][22][23]. Climate change is expected to affect soil erosion based on a variety of factors [24] including changes in precipitation amount and intensity, impacts on soil moisture and plant growth, etc.…”

“…Climate change is expected to affect soil erosion based on a variety of factors [24] including changes in precipitation amount and intensity, impacts on soil moisture and plant growth, etc. Several studies have also shown that climate change could significantly affect soil erosion (as shown in Table 2) [19,20,25,26]. One of the direct impacts of climate change on soil erosion is the change in the erosive power of rainfall [23][24][25].…”