Simulating the Market Share Variation in Multi-Airport Area Incorporating Airport Choice Habit

Abstract

For the reason that passengers commonly need some time to change their habitual airport choice, the demand attracted by a newly conducted service of an airport may gradually increase at the startup time. We refer to this duration as the cultivation period and analyze the variation in the market share within the period by simulating the switch of habitual airport choice. Considering the effects of habit on passengers' cognitive risks, the cumulative prospect theory is applied to model the habitual airport choices, and the habit decay pattern is determined to construct the mechanism that links the sequential choices. The case of Lukou Airport in the Yangtze Delta Region is considered as an example to validate the simulation approach. The results show that the simulated market share fits the real data well, and the coach frequency and the on-time performance are two key factors that determine the efficiency of the coach service in the cultivation period. Meanwhile, setting dynamic coach frequencies is an effective strategy to guide passengers in quickly switching their habitual airport choice, which reduces the cultivation period. INDEX TERMS Cultivation period, airport market share, switch of habitual airport choice, cumulative prospect theory.

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