Simulating the Transmission and Recovery from Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) to Understand the Impact of Experimental Drug Might Have in Three West African Countries

Abstract

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) has become one of the deadly epidemics that have caused the death of many in recent times. Three West African countries; Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea have experienced the worst spread of the disease since the disease outbreak recently. There have been suspected, probable and confirmed 17,145 reported cases of the disease in all the affected countries, with 6,070 reported deaths. This paper employs the SIRS (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered and Susceptible) model and cellular automata model (global stochastic contact model) with real parameters that include average contact, recovery period, infectious period and transmission probability to simulate in order to understand how the new Ebola experimental drug (ZMAPP) that is used to cure 3 patients could impact on a population hit by the disease and the period of time it will take to eradicate the epidemic. The study can serve as a basis for understanding the vaccination effect on Ebola virus based on real parameters.