Simulation and Evaluation of Urban Growth for Germany Including Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Measures

Hoymann, Jana; Goetzke, Roland

doi:10.3390/ijgi5070101

Cited by 17 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Around the globe, urbanization is expected to increase significantly in the coming decades and is projected to continue [1,2]. Rapid urbanization and urban sprawl have a significant impact on conditions of urban land use changes due to the increasing demands for the construction of new residential, commercial, utility, and transport infrastructures [3,4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Gross Primary Production (GPP) over the Past Two Decades Due to Land Use Conversion in a Tourism City

Nuarsa

As-syakur

Gunadi

et al. 2018

IJGI

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Understanding the changes in gross primary production (GPP), which is the total carbon fixation by terrestrial ecosystems through vegetation photosynthesis, due to land use conversion in a tourism city is important for carbon cycle studies. Satellite data from Landsat 5, Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 and meteorological data are used to calculate annual GPP for 1995, 2003 and 2014, respectively, using the vegetation production model (VPM) in the tourism city Denpasar, Bali, Indonesia. Five land use types generated from topographic maps in three different years over the past two decades are used to quantify the impacts of land use changes on GPP estimation values. Analysis was performed for two periods to determine changes in land use and GPP value as well as their speed. The results demonstrated that urban land development, namely, the increase of settlement areas due to tourism activity, had overall negative effects on terrestrial GPP. The total GPP of the whole area decreased by 7793.96 tC year −1 (12.65%) during the study period. The decline is due to the conversion of agriculture and grassland area into settlements, which caused the city to lose half of its ability to uptake carbon through vegetation. However, although forest area is declining, forest maintenance and restoration by making them protection areas has been helpful in preventing a drastic decline in GPP value over the past two decades. This study provides information that is useful for carbon resource management, tourism, policy making and scholars concerned about carbon reduction in a tourism city.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Gross Primary Production (GPP) over the Past Two Decades Due to Land Use Conversion in a Tourism City

Nuarsa

As-syakur

Gunadi

et al. 2018

IJGI

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“…The simulation of urban morphology change (Criterion 1) and densification processes (Criterion 2) beside urban growth is not yet established in studies of exposure simulations, but 18 publications already integrate the simulation of the different characteristics of urban land into modeling approaches (33.3%). If urban morphologies are considered, most authors follow the concept of urban land use classes and distinguish between different urban forms as residential, commercial, industrial, or transportation structure types [86,[91][92][93]. Urban morphology changes are projected by simulating the shifts between the different urban land-use classes in a probability-based approach.…”

Section: Urban Morphologies and Densification Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban growth modeling for the assessment of future climate and disaster risks: approaches, gaps and needs

Reimuth,

Hagenlocher,

Yang

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Urban climate-related disaster risks are set to rise, driven by the interaction of two global megatrends: urbanization and climate change. A detailed understanding of whether, where and how cities are growing within or into hazard-prone areas is an urgent prerequisite for assessing future risk trajectories, risk-informed planning, and adaptation decisions. However, this analysis has been mostly neglected to date, as most climate change and disaster risk research has focused on the assessment of future hazard trends but less on the assessment of how socio-economic changes affect future hazard exposure. Urban growth and expansion modeling provide a powerful tool, given that urban growth is a major driver of future disaster risk in cities. The paper reviews the achievements lately made in urban growth and exposure modeling and assesses how they can be applied in the context of future-oriented urban risk assessment and the planning of adaptation measures. It also analyses which methodological challenges persist in urban growth and exposure modeling and how they might be overcome. These points pertain particularly to the need to consider and integrate (1) urban morphology patterns and potential linkages to exposure as well as vulnerability, (2) long-term time horizons to consider long-term developments, (3) feedbacks between urbanization trajectories and hazard trends, (4) the integration of future urban growth drivers and adaptation responses, (5) feedbacks between adaptation and urbanization, and (6) scenarios, which are developed within a commonly defined scenario framework.

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“…Therefore, accurate thresholds of maladaptation cannot be estimated; however, the interaction between adaptation and the environment can be estimated as comprehensively as possible in the initial adaptation planning. Several alternative adaptation scenarios are compared with a reference scenario to evaluate the effects of different initiatives on the achievement of climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives [73]. Furthermore, the maladaptive risk at different spatiotemporal scales can be predicted and compared.…”

Section: Risk Thresholds For Maladaptationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of Spatial Analysis in Avoiding Climate Change Maladaptation: A Systematic Review

Chi

Hallgren

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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With the rapid development of climate change adaptation over recent decades, a considerable amount of evidence has been collected on maladaptation associated with climate change adaptation initiatives, particularly in terms of risk transfer and risk substitution. Increasing our understanding of maladaptation is important for avoiding negative outcomes of adaptation project implementation. However, maladaptation has received limited research attention. Previous research has focused on frameworks that can assist in defining and avoiding maladaptive risk and be applied to adaptation initiative planning processes. Adaptation may cause more significant influences on spatial land change than the direct effect of climate change does. Identifying the adaptation consequences that are likely to result in maladaptation is crucial. A combination of spatial land analysis and climate change analysis can be used for the aforementioned identification. However, empirical case studies on methods that can assess and evaluate the risk of maladaptation by integrating spatial and temporal aspects in a land spatial modeling tool have not been conducted. The present study aimed to fill this research gap by exploring the existing knowledge on maladaptation to climate change. We examined the interaction among spatial analysis, evaluated maladaptation frameworks, and project design to extend our conceptual understanding on maladaptation to climate change. We adopted a systematic review method that involved considering several questions including the following: (a) What are the definitions and categories of maladaptation? (b) What methods and theoretical frameworks exist for the assessment and evaluation of maladaptive risk? (c) How have climate-related research communities considered issues of maladaptation? (d) What are the experimental studies on land use change that can be referred to for minimizing maladaptive risks in future adaptation planning? In conclusion, further research on maladaptation should integrate spatial land analysis methods to facilitate the identification and avoidance of maladaptive risk in the initial stage of adaptation planning.

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Simulation and Evaluation of Urban Growth for Germany Including Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Measures

Cited by 17 publications

References 24 publications

Changes in Gross Primary Production (GPP) over the Past Two Decades Due to Land Use Conversion in a Tourism City

Changes in Gross Primary Production (GPP) over the Past Two Decades Due to Land Use Conversion in a Tourism City

Urban growth modeling for the assessment of future climate and disaster risks: approaches, gaps and needs

Role of Spatial Analysis in Avoiding Climate Change Maladaptation: A Systematic Review

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