Simulation of Aflatoxin Testing Plans for Shelled Peanuts in the United States and in the Export Market

Tb, Whitaker; Jw, Dickens

doi:10.1093/jaoac/72.4.644

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…Furthermore, a 30 kg (66 lb) sample is close to the 50 lb sample currently being used in the United States for sampling of imported pistachio lots. It is also close to the 48 lb sample used for peanuts (Whitaker and Dickens, 1989). However, a single 30 kg sample average at 15 ng/g would still yield a standard deviation of 25 ng/g.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 57%

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Distribution of Aflatoxin in Pistachios. 7. Sequential Sampling

Schatzki

2000

J. Agric. Food Chem.

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Sequential sampling for aflatoxin testing in pistachios is evaluated using the aflatoxin distribution and Monte Carlo results previously obtained (J. Agric. Food Chem. 1999, 47, 3771-3775). The sequential protocol is modeled on the current EU test protocol by applying a three-step sampling, using 10, 20, and 30 kg sample averages. An acceptance level of 15 ng/g of total aflatoxin, under consideration for U.S. standards, is applied. Optimization leads to indifference regions of 2-30 ng/g for the first two steps. The resulting OC curve approximates that for a single 50 kg sample. The sequential protocol is applied to the results for a set of 1293 lots of the 1998 crop year, each tested with a single 10 kg sample. Ninety-five percent of the lots would have been accepted on the basis of the single test and 1.5% would have been rejected, whereas 3.5% of the lots would have required retesting.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 57%

“…What is done here is very similar to what was done by Whitaker and Dickens (1989) for peanuts except that these authors did not optimize the regions of indifference.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 81%

Distribution of Aflatoxin in Pistachios. 7. Sequential Sampling

Schatzki

2000

J. Agric. Food Chem.

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“…The USDA sampling plan is a sequential plan that uses up to three 22kg (48 lb) samples and a final accept/reject limit of 15 total ppb to accept or reject each shelled lot (16). Methods developed by researchers (13,15) were used in the model to evaluate the accept/reject probabilities associated with the USDA aflatoxin-sampling plan for shelled peanuts. Two new-shelled lot distributions are created by the USDA aflatoxin-sampling plan for raw shelled peanut lots.…”

Section: Storage Offarmer Stock Peanutsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Market System Model to Predict the Effects of Regulatory and Processing Practices on the Removal of Aflatoxin from Peanuts1

2002

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A spreadsheet model was developed to predict the aflatoxin distribution among peanut lots in the market system from farmer stock marketing through storage, shelling, and blanching. The model calculates the aflatoxin distribution among lots after each major regulatory and processing stage in the market system from the buying point to the manufacturer. Model development is based on statistical and mathematical relationships derived from previous research on the effects of sampling plans and processing methods on the change in aflatoxin levels in peanuts. The USDA and the peanut industry can use the model as a tool to compare and evaluate the efficacy of proposed new regulations and processing methods on removing aflatoxin without actual costly implementation. The model also points out potential areas where information is missing and research is needed to better manage aflatoxin-contaminated peanuts. The model is used to evaluate the peanut market system where farmers' stock peanuts are chemically tested for aflatoxin.

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“…This problem has been addressed previously in QC terms for peanuts by Whitaker et al (1970Whitaker et al ( , 1989Whitaker et al ( , 1995, using a postulated negative binomial or an experimental distribution of aflatoxin in the lot. Since results can be expected to depend critically on the distribution, as well as sampling design, Whitaker's results cannot be applied directly to pistachios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution of Aflatoxin in Pistachios. 6. Seller's and Buyer's Risk

Schatzki

deKoe²

1999

J. Agric. Food Chem.

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The seller's risk-the probability of a set of samples exceeding an agreed upon aflatoxin level when the lot mean does not-and the buyer's risk-the probability of a lot exceeding this level when a set of samples do not-have been computed using a parametrized experimental aflatoxin distribution and Monte Carlo simulation. The calculations are exemplified using the proposed EC standards (three 10 kg samples, 4 ng/g of total aflatoxin, basis kernels only) as well as for samples up to 250 kg and for varied lot aflatoxin levels. It is found that within this sample size range the seller's risk is as high as 42% at 10 kg and increases with increasing sample size to 80% at 250 kg. Only by reducing lot levels to 0.2 ng/g of total aflatoxin, basis kernels, can the risk be brought down to 2.5%, independent of sample size. The buyer's risk is as high as 58% at 10 kg but falls to 11% at 250 kg samples. The implications for both seller and buyer strategies are discussed.

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Simulation of Aflatoxin Testing Plans for Shelled Peanuts in the United States and in the Export Market

Cited by 6 publications

References 0 publications

Distribution of Aflatoxin in Pistachios. 7. Sequential Sampling

Distribution of Aflatoxin in Pistachios. 7. Sequential Sampling

Market System Model to Predict the Effects of Regulatory and Processing Practices on the Removal of Aflatoxin from Peanuts1

Distribution of Aflatoxin in Pistachios. 6. Seller's and Buyer's Risk

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