Simulation of land use changes for the planning of a metropolitan area

Abstract

An urban system is complex and so it can respond in more than one way to its environment. Urban land use dynamics are the direct consequence of the action of individuals, public and private agents acting simultaneously in time over the urban space. Urban land use represents an intense and complete transformation of the natural environment for its essential construction of urban fabrics including residential, industrial and infrastructure development which is driven by population growth, social and economic development. Urban planning usually involves the comparison between a set of planning scenarios and development options before making a plan. The analysis of alternative planning options is an essential part of plan making. Every time an urban land use plan is prepared, the urban planners are under pressure with limited resource availability and time frame. The plans are therefore prepared without application of an appropriate scientific tool or urban model, to minimise resource and time and so the plans suffer validation. Further, evaluation of the plans in the mid-course with the ground reality and modification wherever necessary is possible only when they have suitable tools in hand to prepare alternate plans. Such a plan will encounter fewer errors and be more successful.In this context, the paper attempts to develop a tool for the planners to help them in assessing the future development in a metropolitan context at any given point of time. The variables which influence urban land use change are identified and a land use simulation model is developed to simulate future land use scenarios. The land use scenarios guide in forecasting the future requirements of infrastructure and communal facilities. The model is demonstrated with a village level case study in Chennai Metropolitan Area.