Abstract:Historical eruptions of Veniaminof Volcano, Alaska have all occurred at a 300-m-high cinder cone within the icefilled caldera that characterizes the volcano. At least six of nineteen historical eruptions involved simultaneous explosive and effusive activity from separate vents. Eruptions in 1944, 1983–1984, 1993–1994, 2013, 2018 and 2021 included periods of explosive ash-producing Strombolian activity from summit vents and simultaneous nonexplosive effusion of lava from flank vents on either the southern or no… Show more
“…Mount Veniaminof had three eruptions between 2012-2022, the time period when both VIIRS and MODIS data are available. These eruptions were effusive-explosive in nature, characterized by lava effusion into and within the intra-caldera glacier, and sporadic ash emissions (Loewen et al, 2021;Waythomas, 2021;Waythomas et al, 2023). Start and end dates for these eruptions are taken from Loewen et al (2021).…”
Section: Comparison and Detection Limits Of Modis And Viirs Datamentioning
An increase in volcanic thermal emissions can indicate subsurface and surface processes that precede, or coincide with, volcanic eruptions. Space-borne infrared sensors can detect hotspots—defined here as localized volcanic thermal emissions—in near-real-time. However, automatic hotspot detection systems are needed to efficiently analyze the large quantities of data produced. While hotspots have been automatically detected for over 20 years with simple thresholding algorithms, new computer vision technologies, such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), can enable improved detection capabilities. Here we introduce HotLINK: the Hotspot Learning and Identification Network, a CNN trained to detect hotspots with a dataset of −3,800 satellite-based, Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) images from Mount Veniaminof and Mount Cleveland volcanoes, Alaska. We find that our model achieves an accuracy of 96% (F1-score 0.92) when evaluated on −1,700 unseen images from the same volcanoes, and 95% (F1-score 0.67) when evaluated on −3,000 images from six additional Alaska volcanoes (Augustine Volcano, Bogoslof Island, Okmok Caldera, Pavlof Volcano, Redoubt Volcano, Shishaldin Volcano). In comparison with an existing threshold-based hotspot detection algorithm, MIROVA (Coppola et al., Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 2016, 426, 181–205), our model detects 22% more hotspots and produces 12% fewer false positives. Additional testing on −700 labeled Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images from Mount Veniaminof demonstrates that our model is applicable to this sensor’s data as well, achieving an accuracy of 98% (F1-score 0.95). We apply HotLINK to 10 years of VIIRS data and 22 years of MODIS data for the eight aforementioned Alaska volcanoes and calculate the radiative power of detected hotspots. From these time series we find that HotLINK accurately characterizes background and eruptive periods, similar to MIROVA, but also detects more subtle warming signals, potentially related to volcanic unrest. We identify three advantages to our model over its predecessors: 1) the ability to detect more subtle volcanic hotspots and produce fewer false positives, especially in daytime images; 2) probabilistic predictions provide a measure of detection confidence; and 3) its transferability, i.e., the successful application to multiple sensors and multiple volcanoes without the need for threshold tuning, suggesting the potential for global application.
“…Mount Veniaminof had three eruptions between 2012-2022, the time period when both VIIRS and MODIS data are available. These eruptions were effusive-explosive in nature, characterized by lava effusion into and within the intra-caldera glacier, and sporadic ash emissions (Loewen et al, 2021;Waythomas, 2021;Waythomas et al, 2023). Start and end dates for these eruptions are taken from Loewen et al (2021).…”
Section: Comparison and Detection Limits Of Modis And Viirs Datamentioning
An increase in volcanic thermal emissions can indicate subsurface and surface processes that precede, or coincide with, volcanic eruptions. Space-borne infrared sensors can detect hotspots—defined here as localized volcanic thermal emissions—in near-real-time. However, automatic hotspot detection systems are needed to efficiently analyze the large quantities of data produced. While hotspots have been automatically detected for over 20 years with simple thresholding algorithms, new computer vision technologies, such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), can enable improved detection capabilities. Here we introduce HotLINK: the Hotspot Learning and Identification Network, a CNN trained to detect hotspots with a dataset of −3,800 satellite-based, Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) images from Mount Veniaminof and Mount Cleveland volcanoes, Alaska. We find that our model achieves an accuracy of 96% (F1-score 0.92) when evaluated on −1,700 unseen images from the same volcanoes, and 95% (F1-score 0.67) when evaluated on −3,000 images from six additional Alaska volcanoes (Augustine Volcano, Bogoslof Island, Okmok Caldera, Pavlof Volcano, Redoubt Volcano, Shishaldin Volcano). In comparison with an existing threshold-based hotspot detection algorithm, MIROVA (Coppola et al., Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 2016, 426, 181–205), our model detects 22% more hotspots and produces 12% fewer false positives. Additional testing on −700 labeled Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images from Mount Veniaminof demonstrates that our model is applicable to this sensor’s data as well, achieving an accuracy of 98% (F1-score 0.95). We apply HotLINK to 10 years of VIIRS data and 22 years of MODIS data for the eight aforementioned Alaska volcanoes and calculate the radiative power of detected hotspots. From these time series we find that HotLINK accurately characterizes background and eruptive periods, similar to MIROVA, but also detects more subtle warming signals, potentially related to volcanic unrest. We identify three advantages to our model over its predecessors: 1) the ability to detect more subtle volcanic hotspots and produce fewer false positives, especially in daytime images; 2) probabilistic predictions provide a measure of detection confidence; and 3) its transferability, i.e., the successful application to multiple sensors and multiple volcanoes without the need for threshold tuning, suggesting the potential for global application.
In 2021, the Alaska Volcano Observatory responded to eruptions, volcanic unrest or suspected unrest, increased seismicity, and other significant activity at 15 volcanic centers in Alaska and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Eruptive activity in Alaska consisted of repeated small, ash-producing, phreatomagmatic explosions from Mount Young on Semisopochnoi Island; an explosion at Great Sitkin Volcano followed by the eruption of a thick lava flow that filled and overflowed the summit crater; weak explosive activity and the eruption of small, channelized flows at Pavlof Volcano; and a short-lived eruption at Mount Veniaminof that produced ash emissions from an intracaldera cone, as well as lava flows confined to a melt pit in the ice mantling the cone's flank. Mount Cleveland had a period of unrest, but no eruptive activity took place there. Anomalous seismicity was also detected at Atka volcanic complex, Mount Gareloi, and Davidof volcano. New warm springs opened and deposited mud at the summit and north base of Shrub mud volcano. Other activity of note in Alaska consisted of large ice and rock avalanches at Iliamna Volcano and Mount Spurr, ash resuspension events at Mount Katmai and Aniakchak Crater, and anomalous deformation at Mount Okmok that was consistent with a shallow intrusion of magma. In the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands, a brief, ashproducing eruption occurred at Mount Pagan. Aviation Color Code/ Volcano Alert Level Date and time of change (UTC) Shrub mud volcano UNASSIGNED No change for entire year Mount Katmai (Novarupta) GREEN/NORMAL No change for entire year Mount Veniaminof GREEN/NORMAL Beginning of year UNASSIGNED 01/15/2021 (21:33) ORANGE/WATCH 03/04/2021
“…At times, a middle vent between the upper and lower vents exhibited mixed activity. This close spatial association of markedly different eruptive style requires explanation in terms of the geometry of the shallow plumbing system, and the spatial organization of gas–magma decoupling processes 13 , 14 . Fig.…”
Two remarkable 2021 eruptions – Fagradalsfjall (Reykjanes, Iceland) and Cumbre Vieja (La Palma, Spain) – have been captured in imagery and videography at unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution by tourists, volcano-enthusiasts, and media organizations. We propose this represents the start of a new era for observational volcanology, with the abundance of eruption imagery leveraged for scientific use.
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