Site-specific response spectra from the combination of microzonation with probabilistic seismic hazard assessment—An example for the Cologne (Germany) area

Parolai, Stefano; Grünthal, Gottfried; Wahlström, Rutger

doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2006.03.007

Cited by 13 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Probably the most common is the method based on standard penetration testing (SPT). In our study, due to the lack of SPT data, we use an approach based on the correlation between penetration resistance and the angle of internal friction for sandy soils (Table 1, Peck, 1974).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The input data for the seismic hazard analyses were taken in accordance with the regional model of Grünthal et al (2010). The hazard calculations were carried out using the GEM (Global Earthquake Model) OpenQuake software (Crowley et al, 2011a, b) for soil sites characterized by 300 m s −1 shear wave (S wave) velocity in the uppermost 30 m, which was assigned con- sidering the results of previous seismological studies in the area (Tyagunov et al, 2006b;Parolai et al, 2007). Note that amongst the waves generated by an earthquake, the S waves, that is, those for which the motion is perpendicular to the direction of wave propagation, are expected to determine the largest impact on the building structures.…”

Section: Dike Failure Probability Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Relationship between the angle of internal friction and SPT values(Peck, 1974).SPT, N value Density of sand ϕ (degrees)…”

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confidence: 99%

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Multi-hazard fragility analysis for fluvial dikes in earthquake- and flood-prone areas

Tyagunov

Vorogushyn

Jimenez

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The paper presents a methodology for the multi-hazard fragility analysis of fluvial earthen dikes in earthquake- and flood-prone areas due to liquefaction. The methodology has been applied for the area along the Rhine River reach and adjacent floodplains between the gauges at Andernach and Düsseldorf. Along this domain, the urban areas are partly protected by dikes, which may be prone to failure during exceptional floods and/or earthquakes. The fragility of the earthen dikes is analysed in terms of liquefaction potential, characterized by the factor of safety estimated using the procedure of Seed and Idriss (1971). Uncertainties in the geometrical and geotechnical dike parameters are considered in a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Failure probability of the earthen structures is presented in the form of a fragility surface as a function of both seismic hazard and hydrologic/hydraulic load.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Dike Failure Probability Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-hazard fragility analysis for fluvial dikes in earthquake- and flood-prone areas

Tyagunov

Vorogushyn

Jimenez

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Erdik et al [2005] evaluated the seismic hazard for Bishkek accounting for a first-order approximation of the potential site amplification effects, quantifying the building vulnerability and, finally, evaluating the urban earthquake risk. Parolai et al [2007] used numerical simulations to estimate the site effects in terms of response spectrum ratio for the Cologne (Germany) area. These site effects, along with their uncertainties, were included in hazard analyses by modifying the ground motion prediction equations with respect to a rock site.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, considering empirically estimated site effects

Ullah

Bindi

Pilz

et al. 2015

Annals of Geophysics

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<p>It is well known that variability in the surface geology potentially leads to the modification of earthquake-induced ground motion over short distances. Although this effect is of major importance when seismic hazard is assessed at the urban level, it is very often not appropriately accounted for. In this paper, we present a first attempt at taking into account the influence of the shallow geological structure on the seismic hazard assessment for Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, using a proxy (Vs30) that has been estimated from in situ seismic noise array analyses, and considering response spectral ratios calculated by analyzing a series of earthquake recordings of a temporary seismic network. To highlight the spatial variability of the observed ground motion, the obtained results are compared with those estimated assuming a homogeneous Vs30 value over the whole urban area. The seismic hazard is evaluated in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at different periods (frequencies). The presented results consider the values obtained for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The largest SA estimated considering a rock site classification of the area (0.43 g) is observed for a period of 0.1 s (10 Hz), while the maximum PGA reaches 0.21 g. When site effects are included through the Vs30 proxy in the seismic hazard calculation, the largest SA, 0.67 g, is obtained for a period of 0.3 s (about 3.3 Hz). In terms of PGA, in this case the largest estimated value reaches 0.31 g in the northern part of the town. When the variability of ground motion is accounted for through response spectrum ratios, the largest SA reaches a value as high as 1.39 g at a period of 0.5 s. In general, considering site effects in the seismic hazard assessment of Bishkek leads to an increase of seismic hazard in the north of the city, which is thus identified as the most hazardous part within the study area and which is more far away from the faults.</p>

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“…We therefore conduct our study on the case of the city of Cologne, Germany, taking advantage of the fact that this area has been a test case for several previous seismic hazard and risk assessment and research studies (e.g. Allmann et al, 1998;Grünthal and Wahlström, 2006;Schwarz et al, 2004aSchwarz et al, , b, 2006Tyagunov et al, 2004Tyagunov et al, , 2006aParolai et al, 2007;Daniell and Wenzel, 2011), where substantial results have been obtained, representing an important basis for the further development of risk assessment methodologies, including, in particular, uncertainty analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses in seismic risk assessments on the example of Cologne, Germany

Tyagunov

Pittore

Wieland

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties associated with different sources and components of risk (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) are present at each step of seismic risk assessments. All individual sources of uncertainty contribute to the total uncertainty, which might be very high and, within the decision-making context, may therefore lead to either very conservative and expensive decisions or the perception of considerable risk. When anatomizing the structure of the total uncertainty, it is therefore important to propagate the different individual uncertainties through the computational chain and to quantify their contribution to the total value of risk. The present study analyses different uncertainties associated with the hazard, vulnerability and loss components by the use of logic trees. The emphasis is on the analysis of epistemic uncertainties, which represent the reducible part of the total uncertainty, including a sensitivity analysis of the resulting seismic risk assessments with regard to the different uncertainty sources. This investigation, being a part of the EU FP7 project MATRIX (New Multi-Hazard and Multi-Risk Assessment Methods for Europe), is carried out for the example of, and with reference to, the conditions of the city of Cologne, Germany, which is one of the MATRIX test cases. At the same time, this particular study does not aim to revise nor to refine the hazard and risk level for Cologne; it is rather to show how large are the existing uncertainties and how they can influence seismic risk estimates, especially in less wellstudied areas, if hazard and risk models adapted from other regions are used.

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Site-specific response spectra from the combination of microzonation with probabilistic seismic hazard assessment—An example for the Cologne (Germany) area

Cited by 13 publications

References 28 publications

Multi-hazard fragility analysis for fluvial dikes in earthquake- and flood-prone areas

Multi-hazard fragility analysis for fluvial dikes in earthquake- and flood-prone areas

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, considering empirically estimated site effects

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses in seismic risk assessments on the example of Cologne, Germany

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