Slower recovery in space before collapse of connected populations

Dai, Lei; Korolev, Kirill S.; Gore, Jeff

doi:10.1038/nature12071

Cited by 176 publications

(182 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…batch culture using synthetic media supplemented with sugar sucrose; on each day the cells were diluted and transferred into fresh media. As demonstrated previously (22,23), yeast populations experience a tipping point (fold bifurcation) leading to sudden collapse as a result of the cooperative breakdown of sucrose outside of the cell. The first driver is the dilution factor used for daily transfer into fresh media (Fig.…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 92%

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Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers

Dai

Korolev

Gore

2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Shifting patterns of temporal fluctuations have been found to signal critical transitions in a variety of systems, from ecological communities to human physiology. However, failure of these early warning signals in some systems calls for a better understanding of their limitations. In particular, little is known about the generality of early warning signals in different deteriorating environments. In this study, we characterized how multiple environmental drivers influence the dynamics of laboratory yeast populations, which was previously shown to display alternative stable states [Dai et al., Science, 2012]. We observed that both the coefficient of variation and autocorrelation increased before population collapse in two slowly deteriorating environments, one with a rising death rate and the other one with decreasing nutrient availability. We compared the performance of early warning signals across multiple environments as "indicators for loss of resilience." We find that the varying performance is determined by how a system responds to changes in a specific driver, which can be captured by a relation between stability (recovery rate) and resilience (size of the basin of attraction). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the positive correlation between stability and resilience, as the essential assumption of indicators based on critical slowing down, can break down in this system when multiple environmental drivers are changed simultaneously. Our results suggest that the stability-resilience relation needs to be better understood for the application of early warning signals in different scenarios.early warning signals | population collapse | environmental drivers | stability-resilience relation

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Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 92%

“…Theoretical and empirical studies have found that signatures of "critical slowing down" in the spatiotemporal dynamics may be used to indicate impending tipping points (18)(19)(20)(21)(22)(23)(24)(25)(26)(27)(28)(29). These indicators are based on the fact that the dynamics around the equilibrium of a system slows down near a tipping point (19,30,31).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers

Dai

Korolev

Gore

2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Moreover, the use of well-designed experiments in highly simplified microbial systems can make even complex problems tractable [34].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncovering emergent interactions in three-way combinations of stressors

Beppler

Tekin

Mao

et al. 2016

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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Understanding how multiple stressors interact is needed to predict the dynamical outcomes of diverse biological systems, ranging from drug-resistant pathogens that are combated and treated with combination drug therapies to ecosystems impacted by environmental toxicants or disturbances. Nevertheless, extensive studies of higher-order (more than two component) interactions have been lacking. Here, we conduct experiments using 20 threedrug combinations and their effects on the bacterial growth of Escherichia coli. We report our measurements of growth rates in single, pairwise and tripledrug combinations. To uncover emergent interactions, we derive a simple framework to calculate expectations for three-way interactions based on the measured impact of each individual stressor and of each pairwise interaction. Using our framework, we find that (i) emergent antagonisms are more common than emergent synergies and (ii) emergent antagonisms are more common and emergent synergies are more rare than would be inferred from measures of net effects that do not disentangle pairwise interactions from three-way interactions.

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“…As a result, statistics related to variance or autocorrelation could be indicators of declining resilience or approaching thresholds (10,11). Experimental tests of declining resilience in living systems are rare (12)(13)(14)(15)(16)(17), especially in large-scale field settings. In terrestrial ecosystems, such as forests and grasslands, changing resilience has been measured by analyzing the spatial patterns of vegetation maps obtained by satellite remote sensing (18,19).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in ecosystem resilience detected in automated measures of ecosystem metabolism during a whole-lake manipulation

Batt

Carpenter

Cole

et al. 2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Environmental sensor networks are developing rapidly to assess changes in ecosystems and their services. Some ecosystem changes involve thresholds, and theory suggests that statistical indicators of changing resilience can be detected near thresholds. We examined the capacity of environmental sensors to assess resilience during an experimentally induced transition in a wholelake manipulation. A trophic cascade was induced in a planktivoredominated lake by slowly adding piscivorous bass, whereas a nearby bass-dominated lake remained unmanipulated and served as a reference ecosystem during the 4-y experiment. In both the manipulated and reference lakes, automated sensors were used to measure variables related to ecosystem metabolism (dissolved oxygen, pH, and chlorophyll-a concentration) and to estimate gross primary production, respiration, and net ecosystem production. Thresholds were detected in some automated measurements more than a year before the completion of the transition to piscivore dominance. Directly measured variables (dissolved oxygen, pH, and chlorophyll-a concentration) related to ecosystem metabolism were better indicators of the approaching threshold than were the estimates of rates (gross primary production, respiration, and net ecosystem production); this difference was likely a result of the larger uncertainties in the derived rate estimates. Thus, relatively simple characteristics of ecosystems that were observed directly by the sensors were superior indicators of changing resilience. Models linked to thresholds in variables that are directly observed by sensor networks may provide unique opportunities for evaluating resilience in complex ecosystems.regime shift | alternative stable states | early warning signals | sonde | high-frequency time series

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Slower recovery in space before collapse of connected populations

Cited by 176 publications

References 33 publications

Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers

Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers

Uncovering emergent interactions in three-way combinations of stressors

Changes in ecosystem resilience detected in automated measures of ecosystem metabolism during a whole-lake manipulation

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