Socio-economic and energy scenario development in Vietnam

Abstract

In supporting research on the socio-economic implication of energy policy, future scenarios are needed. Currently, most of the developing countries, especially in Southeast Asia, do not have specific targets for energy development rather than putting their main focus on economic growth. However, under natural constraints, especially energy resources, these countries must develop their own pathways in order to achieve socio-economic targets without compromising the environment and scarce natural resources. This paper provides the methodology to develop the platform of socio-economic and energy scenarios that includes two main steps. Firstly, the controversial parameters such as GDP and population are developed to be scale indices. Lately, the scale-based linear complement uses these scale indices to estimate the full-trend scenario for other parameters. The GAMS (General Algebraic Modelling System) programming is used in the processes of scale index development and scenario complement.This study provides the social, economic, and energy platform for researchers and policy-makers in analyzing the implication of socio-economic development to energy consumption as well as the possible CO 2 emissions, towards achieving sustainable development. Similarly to Vietnam, other developing countries may also face the lack of an energy database problem. Therefore, this study can be improved and expanded to those countries, especially in the Asian Pacific region.