Some considerations about tourist arrivals and the COVID-19 pandemic – evidence from Slovenia and Croatia

Gričar, Sergej; Šugar, Violeta; Baldigara, Tea

doi:10.1080/1331677x.2022.2053781

Cited by 5 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…The first overlaid image is the Eurostat report on the decline in tourism demand in the European Union, and the second overlaid image is in Figure 2 . It is obvious that the prediction of some authors [ 2 ] was incredibly accurate and the adapted result of this study significates the decline in tourist arrivals. Moreover, from the overlaid images ( Figure 3 ), it is evident that the theoretical epidemic, i.e., the spread of the viruses, started in 2019 which was before the confirmation of the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak [ 46 ].…”

Section: Delimitations and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 61%

“…One can see that secondary data and reliable methodology could gain forecasting shocks. Therefore: First, tourism declined on a large scale in 2020 [ 3 , 5 ]; Second, the decline was predicted on a pre-effect basis in 2019 [ 2 ]; Third, two non-conventional variables were treated in reliable modelling; Fourth, the ARIMA model was used to forecast the event; Fifth, a dummy variable for seasonal patterns of virus spread is added; Finally, the tourism boom could be based on bacteria ( E. coli , Campylobacter) in 2022/2023. …”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This article aims to develop a testable pre-pandemic model to predict the proliferation of viral diseases [ 8 ]. Following the previous study [ 2 ], we aim to forecast the association between tourist arrivals, bacteria, and viruses (what the data tell us when speaking freely). It is expected that there are inverse relations between them.…”

Section: Overview Of Some Shocks To Public Health and Tourist Arrivalsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some authors [ 14 ] identified food safety and health information as important destination reputations. Until the pandemic, when the crisis started at the end of 2019 and early 2020, there was rare research about a decline in tourist arrivals due to microbes and their associated costs to society [ 2 , 5 , 15 ], tourism, and destination management [ 16 , 17 ].…”

Section: Overview Of Some Shocks To Public Health and Tourist Arrivalsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Notwithstanding, before the COVID-19 pandemic, some authors [ 2 ] warned of a decline in tourist arrivals. This was due to the possible significant spread of viruses.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Did Human Microbes Affect Tourist Arrivals before the COVID-19 Shock? Pre-Effect Forecasting Model for Slovenia

Gričar

Bojnec

2022

IJERPH

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In 2020, with a substantial decline in tourist arrivals slightly before the time of COVID-19, the innovative econometric approach predicted possible responses between the spread of human microbes (bacteria/viruses) and tourist arrivals. The article developed a conceptually tested econometric model for predicting an exogenous shock on tourist arrivals driven by the spread of disease using a time series approach. The reworked study is based on an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to avoid spurious results. The periods of robust empirical study were obtained from the data vectors (i) from January 2008 to December 2018 and (ii) from January 2008 to December 2020. The data were obtained from the National Institute of Public Health (NIPH) and the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. The ARIMA model predicted the number of declines in tourist arrivals for the approaching periods due to the spread of viruses. Before the outbreak of COVID-19, pre-pandemic results confirmed a one-fifth drop in tourist arrivals in the medium term. In the short term, the decline could be more than three-quarters. A further shock can be caused by forecasted bacterial infections; less likely to reduce tourist demand in the long term. The results can improve the evidence for public health demand in risk reduction for tourists as possible patients. The data from the NIPH are crucial for monitoring public health and tourism management as a base for predictions of unknown events.

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Section: Delimitations and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 61%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Overview Of Some Shocks To Public Health and Tourist Arrivalsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Overview Of Some Shocks To Public Health and Tourist Arrivalsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Notwithstanding, before the COVID-19 pandemic, some authors [ 2 ] warned of a decline in tourist arrivals. This was due to the possible significant spread of viruses.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations