Some directions in ecological theory

Abstract

Abstract. The role of theory within ecology has changed dramatically in recent decades. Once primarily a source of qualitative conceptual framing, ecological theories and models are now often used to develop quantitative explanations of empirical patterns and to project future dynamics of specific ecological systems. In this essay, I recount my own experience of this transformation, in which accelerating computing power and the widespread incorporation of stochastic processes into ecological theory combined to create some novel integration of mathematical and statistical models. This stronger integration drives theory towards incorporating more biological realism, and I explore ways in which we can grapple with that realism to generate new general theoretical insights. This enhanced realism, in turn, may lead to frameworks for projecting ecological responses to anthropogenic change, which is, arguably, the central challenge for 21st-century ecology. In an era of big data and synthesis, ecologists are increasingly seeking to infer causality from observational data; but conventional biometry provides few tools for this project. This is a realm where theorists can and should play an important role, and I close by pointing towards some analytical and philosophical approaches developed in our sister discipline of economics that address this very problem. While I make no grand prognostications about the likely discoveries of ecological theory over the coming century, you will find in this essay a scattering of more or less far-fetched ideas that I, at least, think are interesting and (possibly) fruitful directions for our field.

Can we save large carnivores without losing large carnivore science?

“…Invertebrate (Meadows et al, 2017) and theoretical (e.g. Finke and Denno, 2004;Holt and Huxel, 2007;McCoy et al, 2012;McPeek, 2014;Kendall, 2015) studies highlight many different outcomes of predator removal or addition, most of which have received little attention in the wider large carnivore literature Mech, 2012;Ford and Goheen, 2015;Haswell et al, 2017). The consequence of not investigating plausible alternative explanations is that management actions may completely overlook key processes contributing to declines of fauna (e.g.…”

Conflicting demands and shifts between policy and intra-scientific orientation during conservation research programmes

“…Hence, ecological theory (e.g. island biogeography, metapopulation and demographic theory) played a central role in the early history of conservation biology (Kendall 2015 ), but its input has been less apparent in more recent papers in conservation journals (Fazey et al 2005 ). One reason for the weak interest in ecological theory among some conservation scientists may be that predictions rooted in theory are often found less useful because of their deficiencies in the spatial, temporal or taxonomic contexts addressed (Driscoll and Lindenmayer 2012 ).…”

Let’s Train More Theoretical Ecologists – Here Is Why

“…Causes and remedies for this insufficiency have often been debated over the years [1,2,[4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. The issues are so diverse that we provide an overview over the symptoms first before proposing a diagnosis and a possible cure.…”

“…At the purely technical level, we often see examples of problematic mathematical notation [12] and technical errors in the literature [13]-certainly more so than in disciplines with more mature theoretical traditions. In verbal arguments, theoretical concepts are often invoked inconsistently [4,10].…”