Some observations on the current plague outbreak in the Republic of Vietnam.

Cavanaugh, Dan C.; Dangerfield, H G; Hunter, Donald; Joy, Rimai; Marshall, John D.; Quy, D. V.; Vivona, Stefano; Winter, Phillip E.

doi:10.2105/ajph.58.4.742

Cited by 42 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Consistent with previous descriptive studies from Africa, [48][49][50] Southeast Asia, 23,[51][52][53] and North America, 15,16,30,47,54,55 our model identified elevation and rainfall as predictors of plague epizootic activity. Specifically, areas above 1,300 m posed a greater risk of plague occurrence than areas below this threshold.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Climate Predictors of the Spatial Distribution of Human Plague Cases in the West Nile Region of Uganda

MacMillan¹,

Monaghan²,

Apangu³

et al. 2012

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Abstract. East Africa has been identified as a region where vector-borne and zoonotic diseases are most likely to emerge or re-emerge and where morbidity and mortality from these diseases is significant. Understanding when and where humans are most likely to be exposed to vector-borne and zoonotic disease agents in this region can aid in targeting limited prevention and control resources. Often, spatial and temporal distributions of vectors and vector-borne disease agents are predictable based on climatic variables. However, because of coarse meteorological observation networks, appropriately scaled and accurate climate data are often lacking for Africa. Here, we use a recently developed 10-year gridded meteorological dataset from the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting Model to identify climatic variables predictive of the spatial distribution of human plague cases in the West Nile region of Uganda. Our logistic regression model revealed that within high elevation sites (above 1,300 m), plague risk was positively associated with rainfall during the months of February, October, and November and negatively associated with rainfall during the month of June. These findings suggest that areas that receive increased but not continuous rainfall provide ecologically conducive conditions for Yersinia pestis transmission in this region. This study serves as a foundation for similar modeling efforts of other vector-borne and zoonotic disease in regions with sparse observational meteorologic networks.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Climate Predictors of the Spatial Distribution of Human Plague Cases in the West Nile Region of Uganda

MacMillan¹,

Monaghan²,

Apangu³

et al. 2012

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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“…They are well separated from each other by the central China area that our ENM model successfully predicts as plague-free. The area predicted by the southern subset encompasses northern Viet Nam where plague is known to have occurred (23,24) and parts of Nepal and northeastern India (which is not inconsistent with ref. 25).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 55%

Identification of Chinese plague foci from long-term epidemiological data

Ben-Ari

Neerinckx

Agier

et al. 2012

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Carrying out statistical analysis over an extensive dataset of human plague reports in Chinese villages from 1772 to 1964, we identified plague endemic territories in China (i.e., plague foci). Analyses rely on ( i ) a clustering method that groups time series based on their time-frequency resemblances and ( ii ) an ecological niche model that helps identify plague suitable territories characterized by value ranges for a set of predefined environmental variables. Results from both statistical tools indicate the existence of two disconnected plague territories corresponding to Northern and Southern China. Altogether, at least four well defined independent foci are identified. Their contours compare favorably with field observations. Potential and limitations of inferring plague foci and dynamics using epidemiological data is discussed.

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“…Often this resistance has been the result of flea populations being exposed to and selected by insecticides used in malaria control campaigns. Among the areas where such resistance has been the result of flea populations being exposed to and selected by sia and Vietnam (Cavanaugh et al, 1968) in South East Asia, in Israel and in Egypt in the Middle East and in Puerto Rico, Ecuador and Brazil in the Americas.…”

Section: Insecticides For Flea Controlmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Importance of Chemicals in the Control of Tropical Diseases

Gratz

1976

Chemie Der Pflanzenschutz- Und Schädlingsbekämpfungsmittel

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Some observations on the current plague outbreak in the Republic of Vietnam.

Cited by 42 publications

References 6 publications

Climate Predictors of the Spatial Distribution of Human Plague Cases in the West Nile Region of Uganda

Climate Predictors of the Spatial Distribution of Human Plague Cases in the West Nile Region of Uganda

Identification of Chinese plague foci from long-term epidemiological data

The Importance of Chemicals in the Control of Tropical Diseases

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