Source Modelling from Ground Deformation and Gravity Changes at the Campi Flegrei Caldera, Italy

Bonafede, Maurizio; Amoruso, Antonella; Crescentini, Luca; Gottsmann, Joachim; Todesco, Micol; Trasatti, Elisa

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-37060-1_11

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 109 publications

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“…The interpretation of the current prolonged unrest of CFc is a matter of open debate 28 , 32 , 108 . Various theories have been proposed and tested either on the bradyseism of 1983–1984 and on the mini-uplifts 62 , as well as on the decennial-like accelerating uplift after 2005.…”

Section: Results Application and Interpretationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Data analysis of the unsteadily accelerating GPS and seismic records at Campi Flegrei caldera from 2000 to 2020

Bevilacqua

Martino

Giudicepietro

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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Ongoing resurgence affects Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) via bradyseism, i.e. a series of ground deformation episodes accompanied by increases in shallow seismicity. In this study, we perform a mathematical analysis of the GPS and seismic data in the instrumental catalogs from 2000 to 2020, and a comparison of them to the preceding data from 1983 to 1999. We clearly identify and characterize two overlying trends, i.e. a decennial-like acceleration and cyclic oscillations with various periods. In particular, we show that all the signals have been accelerating since 2005, and 90–97% of their increase has occurred since 2011, 40–80% since 2018. Nevertheless, the seismic and ground deformation signals evolved differently—the seismic count increased faster than the GPS data since 2011, and even more so since 2015, growing faster than an exponential function The ground deformation has a linearized rate slope, i.e. acceleration, of 0.6 cm/yr2 and 0.3 cm/yr2 from 2000 to 2020, respectively for the vertical (RITE GPS) and the horizontal (ACAE GPS) components. In addition, all annual rates show alternating speed-ups and slow-downs, consistent between the signals. We find seven major rate maxima since 2000, one every 2.8–3.5 years, with secondary maxima at fractions of the intervals. A cycle with longer period of 6.5–9 years is also identified. Finally, we apply the probabilistic failure forecast method, a nonlinear regression that calculates the theoretical time limit of the signals going to infinity (interpreted here as a critical state potentially reached by the volcano), conditional on the continuation of the observed nonlinear accelerations. Since 2000, we perform a retrospective analysis of the temporal evolution of these forecasts which highlight the periods of more intense acceleration. The failure forecast method applied on the seismic count from 2001 to 2020 produces upper time limits of [0, 3, 11] years (corresponding to the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles, respectively), significantly shorter than those based on the GPS data, e.g. [0, 6, 21] years. Such estimates, only valid under the model assumption of continuation of the ongoing decennial-like acceleration, warn to keep the guard up on the future evolution of Campi Flegrei caldera.

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Section: Results Application and Interpretationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Data analysis of the unsteadily accelerating GPS and seismic records at Campi Flegrei caldera from 2000 to 2020

Bevilacqua

Martino

Giudicepietro

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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“…The last and still ongoing of these unrests began in late 2004/early 2005 (Del Gaudio et al, 2010;Ricco et al, 2019;Chiodini et al, 2015Chiodini et al, , 2022Scarpa et al, 2022, and references therein). There are various interpretations for the source of these more recent unrest episodes (a comprehensive review can be found in Bonafede et al, 2022). One interpretation of the 2012-2013 episode by D' Auria et al (2015)involves the intrusion of ~0.004 km 3 of magma at shallow depth (~3 km).…”

Section: Geological Context and Volcanological Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

The space-time architecture variation of the shallow magmatic plumbing systems feeding the Campi Flegrei and Ischia volcanoes (Southern Italy) from halogen constraints

Balcone-Boissard,

Boudon,

Zdanowicz

et al. 2024

American Mineralogist

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For active volcanoes, knowledge of the architecture of the plumbing system and the conditions of magma storage prior to an eruption are highly important, given their influence on the eruptive style and, thus, the management of future volcanic crises. Here, chlorine is used as a geobarometer for potassic alkaline magmas at the Campi Flegrei volcanic complex, revealing the shallowest depth of fluid-melt equilibration with respect to Cl. The results for representative fallout deposits of selected explosive eruptions show the existence of a multi-depth equilibration zone through time, including shallow magma storage. We describe evidence for the shallowest zone located at a depth equivalent to 65 MPa for the Agnano Monte Spina eruption (4482–4625 cal. yrs BP), at ~100 MPa for the Pomici Principali (11 915–12 158 cal. yrs BP), and the Astroni 6 (4098–4297 cal. yrs BP) eruptions, and close to 115 MPa for the last explosive eruption of Monte Nuovo (AD 1538). For comparison, the pressure estimated for a possible reservoir feeding the Cretaio eruption of Ischia island (AD 430), the only studied eruption on Ischia, is ~140 MPa. The pressure estimates for the two largest magnitude eruptions, the Campanian Ignimbrite (40 ka) and the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (14.9 ka), are also discussed with respect to available magma withdrawal models. The pressures estimated using the Cl geobarometer for the magma leading to the fallout phases of these two eruptions provide evidence for a low-volume, shallow domain (~40 MPa) for the Plinian phase of the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption and a main, deeper reservoir (~130–165 MPa) for the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff eruption. The inferred shallowest equilibration pressures are interpreted here as corresponding to transitory, short-lived magma apophyses, whose eruption may have been facilitated by optimum tectonic stresses, rheological behavior of the crust, and efficiency of volatile exsolution. Alternatively, these magma apophyses may represent an evolved, crystal-rich ponded magma into which a volatile-rich magma ascending from depth was injected. The transient nature of such very shallow reservoirs is suggested by the short timescales inferred from diffusion modeling on crystals available in the literature for the studied Campi Flegrei eruptions. The influence of sulfur (S) on Cl solubility is assessed through Cl solubility modeling and applied to different eruptions. In addition, the pressure at which magmatic fluids and melts equilibrated with respect to Cl is shallower for the Campi Flegrei volcanic complex than the Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex, erupting more homogeneous differentiated magma, of trachytic or phonolitic composition. This approach of using Cl to investigate the architecture of the plumbing system can be extended to all alkali-rich magma systems.

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“…The post‐1980 deformation largely results from a magmatic oblate or sill‐like source at ∼4 km depth below Pozzuoli (e.g., Amoruso et al., 2014; D’Auria et al., 2015; Trasatti et al., 2015). However, an important role for the hydrothermal system has been also proposed (Battaglia et al., 2006; Bonafede et al., 2022; Troise et al., 2019 and references therein).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Magma Transfer at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy) After the 1538 AD Eruption

Trasatti

Magri

Acocella

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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Understanding how shallow magma transfer occurs at volcanoes plays a key role to depict a conceptual model of how a volcano works and, possibly, to forecast where and when an eruptive vent may open. This becomes particularly relevant in the case of calderas, characterized by volcanism resulting from complex processes of magma transfer (Acocella, 2021, and references therein). Monitoring data are essential to constrain how magma is transferred within a volcano, as it has been demonstrated for example,

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Source Modelling from Ground Deformation and Gravity Changes at the Campi Flegrei Caldera, Italy

Cited by 8 publications

References 109 publications

Data analysis of the unsteadily accelerating GPS and seismic records at Campi Flegrei caldera from 2000 to 2020

Data analysis of the unsteadily accelerating GPS and seismic records at Campi Flegrei caldera from 2000 to 2020

The space-time architecture variation of the shallow magmatic plumbing systems feeding the Campi Flegrei and Ischia volcanoes (Southern Italy) from halogen constraints

Magma Transfer at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy) After the 1538 AD Eruption

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