Spatial analysis of trend in extreme daily rainfall in southern France

Blanchet, Juliette; Molinié, Gilles; Touati, J.

doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3122-7

Cited by 45 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…There are several concepts for spatial estimation of daily precipitation extremes. Max-stable processes (de Haan, 1984) using block maxima have been very popular in recent years (Blanchet et al, 2016;Fawcett & Walshaw, 2014;Padoan et al, 2010;Reich & Shaby, 2012;Sebille et al, 2017;Westra & Sisson, 2011), also taking into account the anisotropy of extreme values (Blanchet & Creutin, 2017). Peak-over-threshold approaches were used with max-stable processes as well (Huser & Davison, 2014;Thibaud et al, 2013).…”

Section: 1029/2019ea000557mentioning

confidence: 99%

Error Structure of Metastatistical and Generalized Extreme Value Distributions for Modeling Extreme Rainfall in Austria

Schellander

Lieb

Hell

2019

Earth and Space Science

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Incorrect estimation of extreme values of daily precipitation can have severe consequences in hydrological and engineering applications. Recent advances in the study of extreme precipitation have shown that the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEV) is superior to the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEV) whenever the length of the available record is small compared to the average recurrence time. This paper provides a detailed examination of the relative performance of MEV and GEV for both point estimates and spatial modeling. An analysis for a large number of sample years and return periods for daily precipitation in Austria shows that the MEV exceeds the GEV if the number of sample years is smaller, and the estimated return period is larger than 35 years. This advantage disappears almost entirely if the MEV is used for spatially smooth extreme value modeling instead of the GEV. However, the computational effort is drastically reduced in comparison to spatial modeling with the GEV if a simplified version of the MEV is used.

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Section: 1029/2019ea000557mentioning

confidence: 99%

Error Structure of Metastatistical and Generalized Extreme Value Distributions for Modeling Extreme Rainfall in Austria

Schellander

Lieb

Hell

2019

Earth and Space Science

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“…Studies were carry out in different places of the world in order to identify changes in hydrological time series, especially to try out the application of statistical test to detect trends (e.g. BLANCHET;MOLINIÉ;TOUATI, 2016;SANCHES;VERDUM;FISCH, 2013;and others). The investigation of possible climate changes is primary focus of such studies (MADSEN et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection of trends for extreme events of precipitation in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte through statistical methods

Nunes

Pinto

Baptista

2018

RBRH

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Extreme weather events have emerged as one of the main manifestations of climate change, being that the mitigation of the elapsed impacts demand studies of the magnitude and frequency of their occurrence. This study aims to identify the trends of extreme precipitation events in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte, especially concerning their frequency. The trends of precipitation were studied with especial regard to the indices set by ETCCDMI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices), including time series of annual number of rainy days above a certain threshold recorded at fourteen rainfall gauging stations. One stage of this study consisted in surveying the flood occurrence in the area, besides analyzing the precipitation data corresponding to date of flood occurrences, in order to establish a threshold value beyond which an event would entail potential impacts. No regional index pattern could be set based on such results, although the rainfall station located in the city of Belo Horizonte reported a statistically significant increase in daily precipitation events above 10, 20, 30 and 40 mm, in maximum precipitation recorded over five consecutive days, in daily intensity, and in total annual precipitation. Abrupt changes in rainfall series were also recorded. The results have indicated that the city may be potentially impacted by extreme rainfall increase, probably associated to changes in temperatures on regional and local scales. RESUMOEventos climáticos extremos são considerados uma das principais manifestações de mudança climática, sendo que a minimização dos impactos decorrentes passa pelo estudo da magnitude e frequência de suas ocorrências. Neste sentido, a presente pesquisa busca identificar tendências em eventos extremos de precipitação na Região Metropolitana de Belo Horizonte, à luz da crescente preocupação com o aumento de sua ocorrência na região. As tendências da precipitação foram estudadas, principalmente, por meio dos índices estabelecidos pela ETCCDMI, incluindo séries temporais do número anual de dias chuvosos acima de um certo limiar estabelecido, considerando quatorze estações pluviométricas. A fim de estimar o valor de precipitação limiar, que acarretaria potenciais impactos, foi realizada uma busca de alagamentos ocorridos na região, para que estes fossem associados aos dados de precipitação nos dias de sua ocorrência. A análise efetuada não permitiu a detecção de um padrão regional nos índices analisados, no entanto, a estação localizada em Belo Horizonte apresentou aumento dos eventos de precipitação diária iguais ou superiores a 10, 20, 30 e 40 mm, na precipitação acumulada em cinco dias consecutivos, na intensidade diária e no total anual precipitado. Foram também registradas mudanças abruptas nas séries de precipitação. Os resultados indicaram que Belo Horizonte pode ser impactada pelo aumento de chuvas extremas, fato que pode estar associado a mudanças identificadas nas séries de temperatura.Palavras-chave: chuvas extremas; mudanças climáticas; não estac...

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“…Although the peaks over a defined percentile may lead to more adequate results because of its capability to reflect microclimates, yet they are based on an empirical distribution. By the block maxima approach, one can examine the yearly (or seasonal) daily precipitation maxima (Balling et al ., ; Blanchet et al ., ; Ghenim and Megnounif, ). However, it has a limitation that only one most intense precipitation event is selected during a period irrespective of the characteristics of the period (i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Vosges Mountains region (north‐eastern France)

Minářová

Müller

Clappier

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In this research, different characteristics (duration, affected area, extremity, and synoptic conditions) related to extreme precipitation events (EPEs), and the trends in frequency of EPEs in the Vosges Mountains (VG) region (north‐eastern France) have been analysed and the events were evaluated on regional scale using the Weather Extremity Index. The index combines three aspects of an EPE – rarity, spatial extent, and duration – and it enables a quantitative comparison of these aspects in a data set of EPEs. In this study, 54 EPEs (which occurred during 1960–2013) were selected using daily precipitation totals from meteorological stations. Although possible maximum duration of an EPE was set to 10 days, all detected EPEs lasted 1–5 days. The prevailing short EPEs (1–2 days) affected smaller areas as compared to long EPEs (3–5 days). Instead of the winter maximum of mean precipitation in the VG, the autumn EPEs prevailed in the data set (40% of all EPEs including the four strongest EPEs). Using the manual and the automated catalogues (Grosswetterlagen and SynopVisGWL, respectively), majority of the 54 EPEs was found associated with the west cyclonic weather type; however, none of the five maximum events was produced by this weather type. The two strongest EPEs were related to the stationary cold front rather than to the expected strong zonal circulation. The EPEs were mostly related to strong southwest airflow and flux of specific humidity. No significant trend was found in frequency of EPEs during the 54 years. Our results highlight new insights into the extreme precipitation in VG region. We believe that the ranking of EPEs according to their extremity in the VG region provides useful information for local decision making authorities, engineers, and risk managers.

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Spatial analysis of trend in extreme daily rainfall in southern France

Cited by 45 publications

References 63 publications

Error Structure of Metastatistical and Generalized Extreme Value Distributions for Modeling Extreme Rainfall in Austria

Error Structure of Metastatistical and Generalized Extreme Value Distributions for Modeling Extreme Rainfall in Austria

Detection of trends for extreme events of precipitation in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte through statistical methods

Characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Vosges Mountains region (north‐eastern France)

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