Spatial and temporal patterns of the sensitivity of radial growth response by Picea schrenkiana to regional climate change in the Tianshan Mountains

Peng, Zhongtong; Zhang, Yuandong; Zhu, Liangjun; Guo, Mingming; Lu, Qingao; Xu, Kun; Shao, Hui; Mo, Qifeng; Liu, Shirong

doi:10.1007/s11676-023-01629-y

Cited by 12 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…Afterwards, according to the ecology of species, available literature [ 17 , 25 , 29 , 30 , 32 – 35 , 41 , 42 ], expert judgment and correlation test, only five climatic factors, and one topographic factor were chosen to distribution modeling of the two Thymus species (Table 1 ). It is essential to be indicated that the co-linearity among variables was assessed using Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r), as suggested by previous researchers [ 6 , 11 , 44 – 47 ]. If two variables exhibited a high correlation (r>|0.70|), one of them was excluded to mitigate co-linearity [ 46 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Their results indicate the importance of global warming to ecological functions in local habitats, and biodiversity and ecosystem services cannot be ignored. Forecasting the impact of climate change on plant communities is an important area of study because it plays a crucial role in alerting scientists to make informed decisions in the face of future crises [ 6 , 7 ]. Many new methods have been used to explore the species distribution pattern on the basis of global warming scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The influence of climate change on the future distribution of two Thymus species in Iran: MaxEnt model-based prediction

Hosseini,

Ghorbanpour,

Mostafavi

2024

BMC Plant Biol

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Within a few decades, the species habitat was reshaped at an alarming rate followed by climate change, leading to mass extinction, especially for sensitive species. Species distribution models (SDMs), which estimate both present and future species distribution, have been extensively developed to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distribution and assess habitat suitability. In the West Asia essential oils of T. daenensis and T. kotschyanus include high amounts of thymol and carvacrol and are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, flavoring agents and medicinal plants. Therefore, this study aimed to model these Thymus species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The findings revealed that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10) was the most significant variable affecting the distribution of T. daenensis. In the case of T. kotschyanus, slope percentage was the primary influencing factor. The MaxEnt modeling also demonstrated excellent performance, as indicated by all the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Moreover, based on the projections, the two mentioned species are expected to undergo negative area changes in the coming years. These results can serve as a valuable achievement for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of climate change on the future distribution of two Thymus species in Iran: MaxEnt model-based prediction

Hosseini,

Ghorbanpour,

Mostafavi

2024

BMC Plant Biol

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“…A "hysteresis effect" was found in the rings of both species, linked to May-September moisture conditions of the previous year. Radial growth of B. costata was positively correlated with the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration severe drought, with consequences for tree growth, development, and survival (Nitschke et al 2017;Peng et al 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differences and similarities in radial growth of Betula species to climate change

Liu,

An,

et al. 2024

J. For. Res.

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Betula platyphylla and Betula costata are important species in mixed broadleaved-Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) forests. However, the specific ways in which their growth is affected by warm temperatures and drought remain unclear. To address this issue, 60 and 62 tree-ring cores of B. platyphylla and B. costata were collected in Yichun, China. Using dendrochronological methods, the response and adaptation of these species to climate change were examined. A “hysteresis effect” was found in the rings of both species, linked to May–September moisture conditions of the previous year. Radial growth of B. costata was positively correlated with the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), the precipitation from September to October of the previous year, and the relative humidity in October of the previous year. Growth of B. costata is primarily restricted by moisture conditions from September to October. In contrast, B. platyphylla growth is mainly limited by minimum temperatures in May–June of both the previous and current years. After droughts, B. platyphylla had a faster recovery rate compared to B. costata. In the context of rising temperatures since 1980, the correlation between B. platyphylla growth and monthly SPEI became positive and strengthened over time, while the growth of B. costata showed no conspicuous change. Our findings suggest that the growth of B. platyphylla is already affected by warming temperatures, whereas B. costata may become limited if warming continues or intensifies. Climate change could disrupt the succession of these species, possibly accelerating the succession of pioneer species. The results of this research are of great significance for understanding how the growth changes of birch species under warming and drying conditions, and contribute to understanding the structural adaptation of mixed broadleaved-Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) forests under climate change.

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“…However, the relationship between an increased iWUE and tree growth is complex, and influenced by various factors such as climate variability and plant functional types [13]. Some studies suggest that increasing iWUE does indeed promote tree growth [14][15][16], while others find that it does not necessarily lead to increased growth rates [17][18][19] because other limiting factors also affect tree growth, such as fertilization effects [20] or negative impacts from droughts that cannot be offset by an increased iWUE alone [21]. Sudden increases in iWUE may even serve as an early alert signal of an upcoming drought-induced mortality event [22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses of Tree Growth and Intrinsic Water Use Efficiency to Climate Factors and Human Activities in Upper Reaches of Tarim River in Alaer, Xinjiang, China

Ye,

Liu,

Ren

et al. 2023

Forests

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With global warming and increasing human activities, exploring the impact of the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and climate change on forest ecosystems is crucial. In this study, we focus on Euphrates poplar (Populus euphratica Oliv.) in the upper reaches of the Tarim River in the Alaer region of Xinjiang. We use dendrochronological methods, tree-ring width, and stable carbon isotope series to explain basal area increment (BAI) and intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) changes. We further explore the influence of past climate change and human activities on the radial growth and iWUE of P. euphratica through stable oxygen isotope analysis combined with historical literature records. The results showed that relative humidity had an essential effect on Δ13C and δ18O fractionation in P. euphratica tree rings, whereas the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was considered the main factor influencing the inter-annual variability of the iWUE and BAI. Since 1850, long-term variations in iWUE have exhibited an upward trajectory correlated with rising atmospheric CO2 levels. Approximately 13% of this iWUE increase can be attributed to changes in carbon-concentration-induced water use efficiency (cciWUE). Although Δ13C and δ18O were generally uncorrelated between 1850 and 2018, around 1918, their relationship changed from being weakly correlated to being significantly negatively correlated, which may record changes related to the upstream Tarim River diversion. During the period from 1850 to 2018, both the BAI and iWUE showed an increasing trend for P. euphratica growth; however, the relationship between them was not stable: during 1850–1958, both variables were mainly influenced by climatic factors, while during 1959–2018, the most important influence was due to human activities, specifically agricultural development and irrigation diversions. An abrupt surge in the BAI was observed from 1959 to 1982, reaching its peak around 1982. Surprisingly, post-1983, the escalating iWUE did not correspond with a continuation of this upward trajectory in the BAI, highlighting a divergence from the previous trend where the enhanced iWUE no longer facilitated the growth of P. euphratica. Despite P. euphratica having adapted to the continuously rising Ca, improving its iWUE and growth capacity, this adaptive ability is unstable and may easily be affected by human activities. Overall, the increase in Ca has increased the iWUE of P. euphratica and promoted its growth at a low frequency, while human activities have promoted its development at a high frequency.

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Spatial and temporal patterns of the sensitivity of radial growth response by Picea schrenkiana to regional climate change in the Tianshan Mountains

Cited by 12 publications

References 89 publications

The influence of climate change on the future distribution of two Thymus species in Iran: MaxEnt model-based prediction

The influence of climate change on the future distribution of two Thymus species in Iran: MaxEnt model-based prediction

Differences and similarities in radial growth of Betula species to climate change

Responses of Tree Growth and Intrinsic Water Use Efficiency to Climate Factors and Human Activities in Upper Reaches of Tarim River in Alaer, Xinjiang, China

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