Spatial and temporal patterns of range expansion of white‐winged doves in the USA from 1979 to 2007

Abstract

Aim The geographical expansion of white-winged doves (Zenaida asiatica) in North America has attracted the attention of biologists and sportsmen because of their recreational and aesthetic value; however, data on factors driving the spatial spread of this species are lacking. We examined spatial and temporal patterns of range expansion for white-winged doves along the northern edge of their geographical range from 1979 to 2007 and used a dynamic occupancy model to estimate when and where doves would be found along an expansion gradient.Location Southern half of the USA.Methods We modelled spatial variation in the range expansion of whitewinged doves from 1979 to 2007 using data from the North American Breeding Bird Surveys (BBS) and distance from initial population centre, area of urban land cover, and ecoregion. We used a robust design occupancy analysis to estimate species expansion rate based on a model set grounded in broadscale conditions likely to drive dove distribution. We evaluated our best fitting model (using Akaike's information criterion adjusted for small sample size) by comparing estimates to actual observations in 1993 and 2007 using area under the curve (AUC) metrics from receiver-operating characteristic plots.Results Our spatial distribution model indicated that range expansion of white-winged doves was primarily influenced by distance from the core population centre, with additive effects of ecoregion and land cover. In 1979, whitewinged doves were present in 12% of survey locations, whereas presence increased to 41% by 2007. Across all ecoregions, urban land cover was positively related to probability of occupancy. We evaluated our model for 1993 and 2007 by comparing derived occupancy estimates to sightings of whitewinged doves within our sample hexagons using BBS survey data. Based on high AUC statistics (> 0.85), we concluded that our model was useful for accurately predicting range expansion.Main conclusions Estimating occurrence and range expansion of whitewinged doves and other expanding/invasive avian species at large spatial scales can be effectively conducted using BBS data. Using these nationwide, long-term survey data to relate expansion to a suite of conditions likely to drive population dynamics is an effective approach to developing predictive models of range expansion.

Integrating demography, dispersal and interspecific interactions into bird distribution models

“…In bird distribution modelling, several studies have used dynamic occupancy modelling to study recent range dynamics (Kéry et al 2013, Butcher et al 2014, Yackulic et al 2015. Occupancy is described by colonisation and extinction processes (as in metapopulation models, Hanski 1998), which can be expressed as functions of environmental covariates (Kéry et al 2013).…”

The role of conservative versus innovative nesting behavior on the 25‐year population expansion of an avian predator

“…In general, our study shows the importance of understanding the contribution of habitat selection patterns to population expansion (Butcher et al., ; Veech et al., ). In particular, we showed that species can expand despite a relatively conservative nest site selection behavior, when changes in land use and human demographics provide new vacant areas open to colonization by the growing population (e.g., Balbontin, Negro, Sarasola, Ferrero, & Rivera, ; Cardador, Carrete, & Mañosa, ).…”

Histoire humaine et naturelle d’une invasion biologique

“…Puisqu'elle s'est avérée adaptée à la reconstitution de la dynamique invasive de l'ajonc à La Réunion, nous proposons d'inscrire cette méthode transdisciplinaire aux côtés de celles plus couramment utilisées en biologie pour répondre à ce genre de questions, à savoir les marqueurs moléculaires (Williams et al 2005, Guggisberg et al 2012, l'étude des parts d'herbier (ex : Delisle et al 2003, Chauvel et al 2006, Harris et al 2007, Lavoie et al 2007, Aikio et al 2010, les comparaisons cartographiques, d'échantillonnages ou d'inventaires (ex : Brunzel et al 2009, Butcher et al 2014. L'intérêt de multiplier les méthodes pour cerner l'histoire des processus invasifs est d'autant plus fort que chacune a ses limites : les marqueurs moléculaires ne sont pas utilisables sur toutes les espèces (et notamment pas sur l'ajonc à cette échelle de temps et d'espace, Hornoy 2012) et ne permettent pas d'atteindre une précision temporelle fine ; la compilation des parts d'herbiers souffre d'un biais lié à l'effort de collecte, variable selon les espaces et les époques (Delisle et al 2003, Chauvel et al 2006 ; les comparaisons de relevés et d'inventaires ne permettent que rarement de remonter au-delà de 30 à 40 ans.…”