Spatial and Temporal Variability of Rainfall Trends in Response to Climate Change—A Case Study: Syria

Abstract

Recent climate changes have prompted changes in the hydrological cycle at a global scale, creating instability when predicting future climate conditions and related changes. Perturbations in global climate models have created the need to concentrate consequent changes in hydro climatic factors to comprehend the regional and territorial impacts of climate and environmental changes. Syria, as a Middle East country, is exposed to extreme climate events such as drought and flood. The aim of this study is to analyze rainfall trends in Syria in response to the likely climate change. The analysis was conducted for rainfall data collected from 71 stations distributed all over the country for the period (1991–2009). The trend analysis was performed in monthly and seasonal scales using Mann–Kendall non-parametric statistical tests. The results attained from Mann–Kendall trend analysis revealed decreasing trends at most of the stations. Additionally, rainfall analysis was conducted for the stations with significant trends for wet and dry periods, which also revealed decreasing trends at almost all the stations. From the analysis of the results, it is obvious that slight increasing trends in rainfall in Syria occurred in the fall period. However, in the winter and spring periods, significant decreasing trends have been observed at almost all the stations. This reveals that the country will suffer from shortage of water, because most rainfall occurs in the winter and spring, infrequently in fall and rarely in summer. The results are consistent with the IPCC’s fifth report that predicted a decrease in rainfall in the Mediterranean and southern Asia. The results of this paper could help the management of water resources in Syria considering future climate changes.

Monitoring flood and drought risks in arid and semi‐arid regions using remote sensing data and standardized precipitation index: A case study of Syria

“…The results revealed that the driest years were in 1990, 2014, and 2016 and the extremely wet years were in 1988, 2002, 2012, and 2019 in all stations. The results of dry years in Syria match well with the results of (Zeleňáková, Abd‐Elhamid, et al, 2022) but for the authors knowledge the wet years was not studied in this region before.…”

“…Lu (2011) studied the daily flood and drought index using SPI in the upper Mississippi River basin. Moreover, SPI is helpful for assessing the risks of both drought and flood under dry and wet climate conditions, as confirmed with the applications in different countries such as Greece (Karavitis et al, 2011), Botswana (Batisani, 2011), Iran (Mansouri Daneshvar et al, 2012), Malaysia (Zin et al, 2012), Syria (Zeleňáková, Abd‐Elhamid, et al, 2022), and Slovakia (Zeleňáková, Soľáková, et al, 2022b; Zeleňáková, Soľáková, et al, 2022c).…”

“…Almazrouia et al (2012) presented information on the recent, past, and current climates in the Arabian Peninsula, with an emphasis on Syria which showed changes in weather conditions. In response to climate change, the regional and temporal variability of rainfall trends in Syria was analyzed by Zeleňáková, Abd‐Elhamid, et al (2022) and the results showed that this area has been affected by climate change and the precipitation pattern has changed.…”

Analysis of drought risks in arid regions using RS data and standardized precipitation index considering climate change

“…A software module capable of creating raster layers with SPI indices from locally recorded precipitation, measuring point's geographic location and altitude, and creating a digital elevation model was presented in the study. SPI is used in different studies to assess different types of droughts in different countries such as; Botswana (Batisani, 2011), Malaysia (Zin et al, 2012), Syria (Zeleňáková et al, 2022a), and Slovakia (Zeleňáková et al, 2022b and c)).…”

Climate Indices-Based Analysis of Rainfall Spatiotemporal Variability in Pernambuco State, Brazil

“…The planet's climate is constantly transformed by its dynamics or by the intensification of human activities, resulting in changes in climate patterns that directly affect natural ecosystems, extreme events, and socio-economic systems. In general, there is a consensus among most researchers that the gradual increase in GHG concentrations, mainly CO 2 , intensifies the greenhouse effect, resulting in an irreversible warming process, affecting, in an unprecedented way, natural systems and humans [1][2][3][4][5][6]. According to the IPCC (2021) [7], the human influence on global warming, mainly through the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, is unequivocal and unquestionable, with widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere [8].…”