Spatial Distribution Patterns of the Key Afforestation Species Cupressus funebris: Insights from an Ensemble Model under Climate Change Scenarios

Betula luminifera H. Winkler, a fast-growing broad-leaved tree species native to China’s subtropical regions, possesses significant ecological and economic value. The species’ adaptability and ornamental characteristics make it a crucial component of forest ecosystems. However, the impacts of global climate change on its geographical distribution are not well understood, necessitating research to predict its potential distribution shifts under future climate scenarios. Our aims were to forecast the impact of climate change on the potential suitable distribution of B. luminifera across China using the MaxEnt model, which is recognized for its high predictive accuracy and low sample data requirement. Geographical coordinate data of B. luminifera distribution points were collected from various databases and verified for redundancy. Nineteen bioclimatic variables were selected and screened for correlation to avoid overfitting in the model. The MaxEnt model was optimized using the ENMeval package, and the model accuracy was evaluated using the Akaike Information Criterion Correction (delta.AICc), Training Omission Rate (OR10), and Area Under the Curve (AUC). The potential distribution of B. luminifera was predicted under current and future climate scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). The optimized MaxEnt model demonstrated high predictive accuracy with an AUC value of 0.9. The dominant environmental variables influencing the distribution of B. luminifera were annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and standard deviation of temperature seasonality. The potential suitable habitat area and its geographical location were predicted to change significantly under different future climate scenarios, with complex dynamics of habitat expansion and contraction. The distribution centroid of B. luminifera was also predicted to migrate, indicating a response to changing climatic conditions. Our findings underscore the importance of model optimization in enhancing predictive accuracy and provide valuable insights for the development of conservation strategies and forest management plans to address the challenges posed by climate change.

Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Betula luminifera H. Winkler in China Using MaxEnt

Yang,

Xiang,

et al. 2024

Prediction of the Potential Distribution and Conservation Strategies of the Endangered Plant Tapiscia sinensis

Liu,

Li,

Yang

et al. 2024

Tapiscia sinensis Oliv. (T. sinensis), known as the Yingjiao tree, belongs to the Staphyleaceae family. It is a deciduous tree species endemic to China and represents an ancient species from the Tertiary glacial relics, possessing significant ecological and economic value. This study is based on 154 effective distribution points of T. sinensis in China and 12 environmental factors. Using integrated modeling and ArcGIS software (v10.8), the potential geographic distribution of T. sinensis under climate change was predicted to assess its future impact on distribution and ecological niche. Additionally, on-site surveys were conducted to compare the characteristics of T. sinensis forest communities across different habitability zones. The study also proposes conservation strategies based on the influence of climate change on the distribution of T. sinensis and the characteristics of its forest communities. The results indicate that (1) the current highly suitable areas for T. sinensis are primarily located in the municipal regions where Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces meet, covering an area of 20.44 × 104 km2. (2) In three suitable community categories, T. sinensis is consistently a subdominant species, with the community in moderately suitable areas being the most diverse and exhibiting higher stability and evenness. (3) Under future climate change scenarios, the potential distribution area for T. sinensis will gradually decrease with rising temperatures. It will shift toward northern higher latitude regions, with the degree of ecological niche migration also increasing. (4) Conservation measures for T. sinensis primarily involve in situ and ex situ protection approaches. These results provide a theoretical basis for the scientific management and resource conservation of T. sinensis.

Analyzing the Distribution Patterns of Endemic Quercus vulcanica (Boiss. et Heldr. ex) Kotschy in Türkiye Under Climate Change Using Ensemble Modeling

Koç,

Atalay Dutucu

2024

Quercus vulcanica (Boiss. et Heldr. ex) Kotschy (Kasnak oak), one of the 18 Quercus species naturally distributed in Anatolia, is an endemic species with a restricted distribution range. In accordance with the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Endangered Species classification, Quercus vulcanica is designated as a species of low risk (LC: Least Concern). However, it is predicted that the habitat of Quercus vulcanica will narrow and that the species will become endangered as a result of potential climate change scenarios in the future. The aim of this study was to estimate the temporal and spatial distribution of Quercus vulcanica in Anatolia during the LGM, as well as to examine the impact of present and future climate changes on the species. In this context, principal component analysis was applied to 19 bioclimatic variables of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) climate model, with nine variables identified for use in modeling. Habitat suitability was estimated using the Biodiversity Modeling (BIOMOD) ensemble modeling method, which combines the results of nine different algorithms through the R package ‘biomod2’, applying both committee averaging and weighted average approaches. To evaluate the performance of the models, the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC), True Skill Statistics (TSS), KAPPA and Boyce Index were calculated. The contributions of the environmental variables were determined on a per-algorithm-model basis. The results of the analyses show that the bioclimatic variables that contribute the most to the distribution of the species are Bio8. The modeling results show that Quercus vulcanica is capable of occupying suitable habitat areas across the majority of Anatolia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). It is anticipated that future projections will indicate a notable reduction in the extent of suitable habitat for the species, with the remaining areas confined to the vicinity of the Ilgaz Mountains, Köroğlu Mountains and Bolkar Mountains. Given the increasing destruction that Quercus vulcanica, an endemic plant, will be adversely affected by as a result of human impacts and climate change, it is of the highest importance to develop adaptation strategies with a view to protecting the species’ habitat and the sustainability of the species.