Spatial Modeling of Tangible and Intangible Losses in Integrated Coastal Flood Risk Analysis

Burzel, Andreas; Dassanayake, Dilani R.; Oumeraci, Hocine

doi:10.1142/s0578563415400082

Cited by 13 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…The assessment of these three components encompasses various spatial scales, from the catchment, where the structural risk mitigation strategies are designed, to the target receptor (e.g. a single-building or infrastructure) (Burzel et al, 2015). A robust flood risk management strategy usually combines hydraulic infrastructure (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantification of flood risk mitigation benefits: A building-scale damage assessment through the RASOR platform

Arrighi

Rossi

Trasforini

et al. 2018

Journal of Environmental Management

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Flood risk mitigation usually requires a significant investment of public resources and cost-effectiveness should be ensured. The assessment of the benefits of hydraulic works requires the quantification of (i) flood risk in absence of measures,(ii) risk in presence of mitigation works, (iii) investments to achieve acceptable residual risk. In this work a building-scale is adopted to estimate direct tangible flood losses to several building classes (e.g. residential, industrial, commercial, However, the results show that although hydraulic works are cost-effective, a significant residual risk has to be managed and the achievement of the desired level of acceptable risk would require about 1 billion euros of investments.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantification of flood risk mitigation benefits: A building-scale damage assessment through the RASOR platform

Arrighi

Rossi

Trasforini

et al. 2018

Journal of Environmental Management

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“…Results of this study were delivered to the "risk receptor analysis" [Ujeyl and Rose, 2015;Dassanayake et al, 2015;Burzel et al, 2015] and were later used to integrate all results within the "risk analysis framework" (Fig. 1), .…”

Section: General Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The results of the probability of flooding were delivered for risk integration Burzel et al, 2015). Moreover, the fault tree analysis allowed determining the probability of breaching of dunes and dikes and gave an indication of the causes of breach initiation, e.g.…”

Section: Reliability Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability-Based Flood Defense Analysis in an Integrated Risk Assessment

Naulin

Kortenhaus

Oumeraci

2015

Coastal Engineering Journal

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Failures of flood defenses have been one of the major reasons in the past leading to flooding of the hinterland behind flood defenses along rivers and at the sea. It is therefore inevitable to investigate the reliability of such defenses for extreme events as have occurred in the past and are discussed to happen more frequently in the future and due to climate changes. The first subproject in XtremRisK (SP 1) and the related papers in this issue "A multi-method approach to develop extreme storm surge events to strengthen the resilience of highly vulnerable coastal areas," Coast. Eng. J., this special issue; Wahl, T. et al. [2015] "Statistical assessment of storm surge scenarios within integrated risk analyses," Coast. Eng. J., this special issue; Tayel, M. and Oumeraci, H.[2015] "A hybrid approach using hydrodynamic modelling and artificial neural networks for extreme storm surge prediction, Coast. Eng. J., this special issue] have investigated the components of storm surges and their statistical occurrence, also in relation to the wave parameters. These results can now be used as input for investigating the reliability of flood defenses and provide an overall failure probability for different types of defenses and different failure modes. This paper therefore summarizes the key findings of the "risk pathway" analysis of XtremRisK Subproject 2 (SP 2) which comprise a reliability analysis 1540005-1 M. Naulin, A. Kortenhaus & H. Oumeraciand breach modeling of coastal and estuarine flood defenses using storm surge scenarios and sea states, including their occurrence probabilities provided by XtremRisK SP 1. The paper discusses the key results, the progress, and challenges in reliability analysis and breach modeling of flood defenses. The developed and advanced methods were applied to pilot sites in Hamburg (Elbe Estuary) and the Island of Sylt (North Sea). These pilot sites are mainly protected by linear flood defenses such as sea dikes, estuarine dikes, coastal dunes, and flood defense walls. Results have shown that under extreme conditions many dikes may fail simply from wave overtopping and even overflow but also from dike breaching due to the severe loading of the dike slopes when heavy overtopping and overflow occurs. The inflowing water volumes were calculated based on time-dependent water levels and then used for inundation modeling of the hinterland in Subproject 3 (SP 3) of XtremRisK. Furthermore, the limit state equations for wave overtopping and overflow had been adapted to time-dependent simulations. An importance factor was introduced for the probability of breaching of sea dikes leading to significantly different failure probabilities. The length effect considering the different homogeneous segments in the dike ring of Hamburg-Wilhelmsburg was estimated using an upper and lower bound approach showing the importance of the segmentation of the dike ring.

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“…Burzel et al [2015] have developed a GIS-based multi-step procedure to account for these differences and to come up with either a multi-map layer approach or a single score comprising all different units and weights. This Cell-based Risk Assessment (CRA) provides the basis for a consistent mapping procedure of the overall flood risk.…”

Section: About This Issuementioning

confidence: 99%

XtremRisK — Today's and Future Coastal Flood Risks Under Extreme Events

Kortenhaus

Oumeraci

2015

Coastal Engineering Journal

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About Flood RiskClimate change and sea level rise, storm surges and hurricanes, sustainability and preparedness are keywords when dealing with safety issues and flood protection along the world's coasts and estuaries. Scientific investigations and political discussions of the related questions are manifold and have looked into various aspects of coastal flood risk. However, the definition of "risk" alone has kept scientists busy all over the world and whilst disputes about its meaning can be found in literature, an easy-to-apply generic definition is yet simply not available.The term "risk" has been developed involving a wide range of disciplines all of which seem to have different viewpoints and definitions of risk. It is therefore inevitable to define its meaning before commencing any risk assessment or risk management attempts. The papers in this issue deal with various aspects of coastal flood risk in general and most of them use an engineering approach to risk which is defined here as the probability of a flood times its consequences. Whilst this seems a straightforward definition it implies numerous questions which have not been answered and some of which have not even been addressed yet. What con-1502001-1

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Spatial Modeling of Tangible and Intangible Losses in Integrated Coastal Flood Risk Analysis

Cited by 13 publications

References 15 publications

Quantification of flood risk mitigation benefits: A building-scale damage assessment through the RASOR platform

Quantification of flood risk mitigation benefits: A building-scale damage assessment through the RASOR platform

Reliability-Based Flood Defense Analysis in an Integrated Risk Assessment

XtremRisK — Today's and Future Coastal Flood Risks Under Extreme Events

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