Spatial variation in risk and consequence of<i>Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans</i>introduction in the USA

Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Adams, Michael J.; White, C. LeAnn; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

doi:10.1098/rsos.150616

Cited by 70 publications

(88 citation statements)

References 31 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…A recent model of the dynamics of host populations suggests a potential rapid spread of Bsal across the range of fire salamanders in Central Europe (Schmidt, Bozzuto, Lötters, & Steinfartz, ), requiring urgent management decisions. In the United States, which host amphibian populations at high risk from Bsal (Richgels, Russell, Adams, White, & Grant, ), pre‐arrival actions to restrict the potential importation of infected salamanders are being implemented while proactive management is considered (Grant et al., ). Here, we focused on the possible management context at the invasion front and epidemic stage (sensu Langwig et al., ; note that for consistency with their classification, we use “epidemic” rather than “epizootic” throughout).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decision‐making for mitigating wildlife diseases: From theory to practice for an emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians

Canessa

Bozzuto²,

Grant

et al. 2018

Journal of Applied Ecology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Conservation science can be most effective in its decision‐support role when seeking answers to clearly formulated questions of direct management relevance. Emerging wildlife diseases, a driver of global biodiversity loss, illustrate the challenges of performing this role: in spite of considerable research, successful disease mitigation is uncommon. Decision analysis is increasingly advocated to guide mitigation planning, but its application remains rare. Using an integral projection model, we explored potential mitigation actions for avoiding population declines and the ongoing spatial spread of the fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). This fungus has recently caused severe amphibian declines in north‐western Europe and currently threatens Palearctic salamander diversity. Available evidence suggests that a Bsal outbreak in a fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) population will lead to its rapid extirpation. Treatments such as antifungals or probiotics would need to effectively interrupt transmission (reduce probability of infection by nearly 90%) in order to reduce the risk of host extirpation and successfully eradicate the pathogen. Improving the survival of infected hosts is most likely to be detrimental as it increases the potential for pathogen transmission and spread. Active removal of a large proportion of the host population has some potential to locally eradicate Bsal and interrupt its spread, depending on the presence of Bsal reservoirs and on the host's spatial dynamics, which should therefore represent research priorities. Synthesis and applications. Mitigation of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans epidemics in susceptible host species is highly challenging, requiring effective interruption of transmission and radical removal of host individuals. More generally, our study illustrates the advantages of framing conservation science directly in the management decision context, rather than adapting to it a posteriori.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decision‐making for mitigating wildlife diseases: From theory to practice for an emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians

Canessa

Bozzuto²,

Grant

et al. 2018

Journal of Applied Ecology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The emergence of Bsal , accompanied by massive amphibian diversity loss, is feared [11], especially in regions that are species-rich in salamanders and newts [16,17]. Biologists and conservationists are saying that Bsal mitigation strategies are necessary now.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the Distribution of the Spreading Lethal Salamander Chytrid Fungus in Its Invasive Range in Europe – A Macroecological Approach

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) is a dangerous pathogen to salamanders and newts. Apparently native to Asia, it has recently been detected in Western Europe where it is expected to spread and to have dramatic effects on naïve hosts. Since 2010, Bsal has led to some catastrophic population declines of urodeles in the Netherlands and Belgium. More recently, it has been discovered in additional, more distant sites including sites in Germany. With the purpose to contribute to a better understanding of Bsal, we modelled its potential distribution in its invasive European range to gain insights about the factors driving this distribution. We computed Bsal Maxent models for two predictor sets, which represent different temporal resolutions, using three different background extents to account for different invasion stage scenarios. Beside ‘classical’ bioclimate, we employed weather data, which allowed us to emphasize predictors in accordance with the known pathogen’s biology. The most important predictors as well as spatial predictions varied between invasion scenarios and predictor sets. The most reasonable model was based on weather data and the scenario of a recent pathogen introduction. It identified temperature predictors, which represent optimal growing conditions and heat limiting conditions, as the most explaining drivers of the current distribution. This model also predicted large areas in the study region as suitable for Bsal. The other models predicted considerably less, but shared some areas which we interpreted as most likely high risk zones. Our results indicate that growth relevant temperatures measured under laboratory conditions might also be relevant on a macroecological scale, if predictors with a high temporal resolution and relevance are used. Additionally, the conditions in our study area support the possibility of a further Bsal spread, especially when considering that our models might tend to underestimate the potential distribution of Bsal.

show abstract

“…When little information is available regarding the true parameter estimates and variance, several options can be used for parameterization, including empirical observation (39), borrowing information from similar diseases ( 40 ), and expert elicitation ( 41 ). Typically, model parameterization will likely include a combination of sources and scientific experts depending on the emerging disease of interest and model frame selected.…”

Section: Parameterization Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Alternatively, observations from other areas where the pathogen previously emerged can be used to make initial predictions about introduction, spread, and establishment ( 40 ). Direct evidence of a disease agent’s potential for infection, transmission, and illness severity or death can be determined by laboratory trials and can identify which species might be most vulnerable to immediate population declines ( 43 ).…”

Section: Parameterization Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Framework for Modeling Emerging Diseases to Inform Management

Russell¹,

Katz²,

Richgels³

et al. 2017

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate and implement optimal management decisions. Actions to control or mitigate the effects of emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because of uncertainty in the estimates and the predicted outcomes of the control tactics. The development of models that describe the best-known information regarding the disease system at the early stages of disease emergence is an essential step for optimal decision-making. Models can predict the potential effects of the pathogen, provide guidance for assessing the likelihood of success of different proposed management actions, quantify the uncertainty surrounding the choice of the optimal decision, and highlight critical areas for immediate research. We demonstrate how to develop models that can be used as a part of a decision-making framework to determine the likelihood of success of different management actions given current knowledge.

show abstract

Spatial variation in risk and consequence ofBatrachochytrium salamandrivoransintroduction in the USA

Cited by 70 publications

References 31 publications

Decision‐making for mitigating wildlife diseases: From theory to practice for an emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians

Decision‐making for mitigating wildlife diseases: From theory to practice for an emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians

Exploring the Distribution of the Spreading Lethal Salamander Chytrid Fungus in Its Invasive Range in Europe – A Macroecological Approach

A Framework for Modeling Emerging Diseases to Inform Management

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About