Spatial Variation of The Delay and Long-Run Effects In The Occurrence of Covid-19 Deaths Among European Countries

Abstract

Background: Over the past two years, the COVID-19 disease has become a global problem, affecting the health systems and economies of countries throughout the world. New cases and hospitalizations associated with the disease appear to affect the number of deaths caused by coronavirus infection. COVID-19 causes a variable number of hospital deaths each day, and the projected mortality rate fluctuates according to the daily tally of new cases. Using a distributed-lag model, this study tries to quantify the influence of COVID-19 new cases on death rates in Europe.Material and method: The "European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control" database was used to gather information on daily Covid-19 cases and deaths in 49 European nations. In the first half and second half of 2020, each of the 49 countries was fitted with the Distributed Lag Model (DLM).Results: The European continent saw an average of 13.5 days between daily Covid-19 new cases and mortality. For the first half and second half of 2020, results from the fitting of the Distributed Lag Model showed that there was a wide range of values for mean delay and long-term effects in Europe.Conclusion: European countries differ in terms of the mean delay and long-term impacts for the first and second half of 2020, according to the findings of the study. Understanding the time lag between new cases and deaths in the COVID-19 pandemic will help policymakers and governments use medical resources more effectively and provide better healthcare interventions that are more impactful.