Spatio-temporal analysis of the development of the COVID-19 epidemic (pandemic) in Poland: First phase of development

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to present a description of the course of the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland in the space-time dimension in the period from March 15th to August 8th 2020. The result of the conducted research is a presentation of the regional differentiation of the course of the epidemic in Poland, the comparison of the intensity of SARS-CoV-2 infections in particular voivodeships, the determination of the degree of similarity in the course of the pandemic development process in individual regions (voivodeships) of the country, and also the indication of the factors which could be taken into account when attempting to explain the interregional differences in the course of the epidemic. The conducted research shows, among other things, that: (1) in terms of time, the development of the epidemic was generally monotonic, however the increase in new infections was rather cyclical, (2) in the spatial dimension, the development of the epidemic was rather random, although the greatest number of infections was characteristic of the most populated regions of the country, (3) the level of infections in Poland was mainly positively influenced by: population density, working in industry, people beyond retirement, age as well as a poorly developed material base of inpatient care.

Cities in the epidemic, the epidemic in cities: Reconstruction of COVID-19 development in Polish cities

“…Spatial differences in the intensity of infections in the investigated cities relates only to a small extent to the results of the research carried out in Poland at regional level ( Parysek & Mierzejewska, 2021 ; Śleszyński, 2020 ). There are significant differences between them.…”

“…There are significant differences between them. While some studies ( Śleszyński, 2020 ) show that the area with the highest infection rate on Poland's map takes the shape of a triangle, the basis of which rests on the Polish-German and Polish-Czech borders and the summit reaches the vicinity of Białystok, other research ( Parysek & Mierzejewska, 2021 ) indicates a relatively low level of the intensity of infections in north-western and south-eastern Poland. It should be emphasised, however, that in the first studies the general number of infections over a short period was taken into account—100 days of epidemic development ( Śleszyński, 2020 ), and in the latter, as in this research, infections per 10,000 inhabitants over an extended period.…”

“…The search concerned on the one hand personal factors of infection and the influence of so-called underlying illnesses, such as tumours, hypertension, diabetes, obesity, kidney diseases, inflammation of epithelial cells, as well as psychiatric diseases, ADHD, HIV and a blood type ( Nishiura et al, 2020 ; Śliwowska, 2020 ), and on the other hand, demographic, social, economic factors and others, including climatic (temperature, air humidity, wind strength, etc.) risk of infections ( Abedi et al, 2020 ; Liu et al, 2020 ; Parysek & Mierzejewska, 2021 ; Qiu et al, 2020 ; Rosenfeld et al, 2020 ; Xie & Zhu, 2020 ). What is indicated at the same time is the geographic variation of factors conducive to infections ( Abedi et al, 2020 ; Liu et al, 2020 ; Nicola et al, 2020 ; Śleszyński, 2020 ; Sun et al, 2020 ; Zhang & Schwartz, 2020 ).…”

“… Coccia, 2020 ; Cole et al, 2020 ; Lee et al, 2020 ; Li et al, 2020 ; Liu et al, 2020 ; O’Sullivan, 2020 ; OECD, 2020 ; Pisano, 2020 ; Rosenfeld et al, 2020 ; UN, 2020 ; Wu et al, 2020 ). Research in Poland, carried out for the first period of the epidemic, demonstrates population density, employment in industry, old age and also a relatively low level of healthcare as statistically significant factors in the regional variation of infections ( Parysek & Mierzejewska, 2021 ).…”

“…The work falls within the scope of geographical sciences, especially urban geography, but also within geography of health. This is important because the literature on this epidemic is dominated by epidemiological and mathematical studies and spatial analyses undertaken are conducted primarily on a global (e.g., Sigler et al, 2021 ) and national scale (Oiu, Chen 2020 – China; Zhu & Zhu, 2020 – China; Abedi et al, 2020 – USA; Wu et al, 2020 – USA, Zemtsov, Baburin 2021 – Russia; Gribaudo et al, 2021 – Italy and Śleszyński, 2020 – Poland; Parysek & Mierzejewska, 2021 – Poland). Far fewer publications deal with individual cities ( Li et al, 2020 – Wuhan; Aloi et al, 2020 – Santander; Pisano, 2020 – Paris and Milano), and even more with groups of cities (Oiu, Chen 2020 – China; Xie & Zhu, 2020 – China; Magnoni, 2021 – Italy).…”