Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and prediction of dry–wet abrupt alternation during the summer monsoon in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin

Shan, Lijie; Zhang, Liping; Xiong, Zhe; Chen, Xinchi; Chen, Shaodan; Yang, Wei

doi:10.1007/s00703-017-0528-7

Cited by 23 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Moreover, the SPEI-1 and SPEI-3 values reflect short-term droughts, whereas the SPEI-6 and SPEI-12 values reflect long-term droughts. In addition, 1963,1966,1971,1978,1979,1986,2001, 2011, and 2013. e drought events occurred in the dry year have also been reported by some previous studies [47,48], which also proves the e ciency of the SPEI in capturing the drought events in our study area.…”

Section: Temporal Variations In Drought Conditionssupporting

confidence: 88%

The Use of SPEI and TVDI to Assess Temporal-Spatial Variations in Drought Conditions in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, China

Chen

Zhang

Liu

et al. 2018

Advances in Meteorology

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Droughts represent the most complex and damaging type of natural disaster, and they have taken place with increased frequency in China in recent years. Values of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) calculated using station-based meteorological data collected from 1961 to 2013 in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MLRYRB) are used to monitor droughts. In addition, the SPEI is determined for different timescales (1, 3, 6, and 12 months) to characterize dry or wet conditions in this study area. Moreover, remote sensing methods can cover large areas, and multispectral and temporal observations are provided by satellite sensors. The temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI) is selected to permit assessment of drought conditions. In addition, the correlation between the SPEI and TVDI values is calculated. The results show that the SPEI values over different timescales reflect complex variations in drought conditions and have been well applied in the MLRYRB. Droughts occurred on an annual basis in 1963, 1966, 1971, 1978, 1979, 1986, 2001, 2011, and 2013, particularly 2011. In addition, the regional average drought frequency in the study area during 1961–2013 is 30%, as determined using the SPEI. An analysis of the correlation between the monthly values of the TVDI and the SPEI-3 shows that a negative relationship exists between the SPEI-3 and the TVDI. That is, smaller TVDI values are associated with greater SPEI-3 values and reduced drought conditions, whereas larger TVDI values are associated with smaller SPEI-3 values and enhanced drought conditions. Therefore, this study of the relationship between the SPEI and the TVDI can provide a basis for government to mitigate the effects of drought.

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Section: Temporal Variations In Drought Conditionssupporting

confidence: 88%

The Use of SPEI and TVDI to Assess Temporal-Spatial Variations in Drought Conditions in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, China

Chen

Zhang

Liu

et al. 2018

Advances in Meteorology

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“…According to the definition of a drought and flood event, five STDF events during 1960–2018 are determined. These five STDF events have also been shown in the previous studies (Wu et al ., 2006; Shan et al ., 2015; Shan et al ., 2018). The start dates, end dates, durations of the drought (flood) and the oscillation periods of five STDF events are identified in Table 1.…”

Section: Characteristics Of the Iso Activity In An Stdfmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wave activities characteristics during a sudden sharp drought–flood turn event in 2011 in East China

Wang

Santisirisomboon

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The sudden turn from drought to flood (STDF) is an extreme climate event that frequently occurs over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MLYR) in China. This study investigates the role of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in a STDF event in 2011 over the MLYR and analyses its dynamic characteristics. A wavelet analysis of the rainfall evolution shows that there are two ISO modes (10-20 days and 30-60 days) during the STDF event.When rainfall turns from drought to flood, both ISO modes of rainfall simultaneously convert from the negative phase to the positive phase. Further investigation on the two intraseasonal time scales illustrates that a meridionally-propagated Rossby wave train (RWT) propagates northward along the eastern China, and meets a zonally-propagated RWT from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific over the MLYR. The interaction of the two RWTs above is the key factor that causes the STDF event in 2011 over the MLYR.

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“…Therefore, the YRB-ML has suffered some of the most severe DWAA disasters in China (Shen et al, 2012). However, the spatial distribution of DWAA events in the YRB-ML has substantial variations because of the wide geographic scope (Shan et al, 2015). If the characteristics of DWAA events in the YRB-ML are analyzed based on average precipitation of the whole basin, the spatial heterogenous signals of the DWAA events may be smoothed out.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alternation events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and the relationship with ENSO

et al. 2018

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During recent decades, more frequent flood-drought alternations have been seen in China as a result of global climate change and intensive human activities, which have significant implications on water and food security. To better identify the characteristics of flood-drought alternations, we proposed a modified dry-wet abrupt alternation index (DWAAI) and applied the new method in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (YRB-ML) to analyze the long-term spatio-temporal characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) events based on the daily precipitation observations at 75 rainfall stations in summer from 1960 to 2015. We found that the DWAA events have been spreading in the study area with higher frequency and intensity since 1960. In particular, the DWAA events mainly occurred in May and June in the northwest of the YRB-ML, including Hanjiang River Basin, the middle reaches of the YRB, north of Dongting Lake and northwest of Poyang Lake. In addition, we also analyzed the impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on DWAA events in the YRB-ML. The results showed that around 41.04% of DWAA events occurred during the declining stages of La Niña or within the subsequent 8 months after La Niña, which implies that La Niña events could be predictive signals of DWAA events. Besides, significant negative correlations have been found between the modified DWAAI values of all the rainfall stations and the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino3.4 region within the 6 months prior to the DWAA events, particularly for the Poyang Lake watershed and the middle reaches Keywords: dry-wet abrupt alternation; the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin; spatio-temporal characteristics; La Niña

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Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and prediction of dry–wet abrupt alternation during the summer monsoon in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin

Cited by 23 publications

References 32 publications

The Use of SPEI and TVDI to Assess Temporal-Spatial Variations in Drought Conditions in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, China

The Use of SPEI and TVDI to Assess Temporal-Spatial Variations in Drought Conditions in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, China

Wave activities characteristics during a sudden sharp drought–flood turn event in 2011 in East China

Characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alternation events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and the relationship with ENSO

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