Spatio‐temporal marine conservation planning to support high‐latitude coral range expansion under climate change

Abstract

Aim Increasing sea‐surface temperatures (SST) have resulted in poleward range expansions of scleractinian corals and declines in their core ranges. These changes may provide management opportunities for the long‐term persistence of corals, but spatial prioritization rarely considers and anticipates these changes. We developed a spatio‐temporal conservation plan that accommodates future coral range expansions based on projections of future SST. Our spatial planning approach is particularly useful in places with limited information about species distributions. Our aims were to (1) identify areas that consistently remain important for conservation through time and (2) determine the differences between priorities for conservation that account for potential coral range expansions and those that ignore them. Location Japan. Methods We developed spatial planning approaches using predicted coral habitat distributions for current conditions, the near future and the distant future. Using the Marxan conservation planning software, we designed conservation plans for scenarios that incorporated different types of spatial and temporal connections. Spatial connections are physical connections between adjacent and nearby areas, whereas temporal connections connect planning areas throughout time. Results We found that protecting areas important for current and future coral habitat distributions is possible by prioritizing places that are consistently important through time. A spatially and temporally cohesive plan was accomplished with only a 14% increase in the overall reserve system costs, compared with reserve systems ignoring future coral habitat distributions. The attributes of priority areas (e.g. locations, outside boundary length and size) were substantially different when we varied the types of connections. Main conclusions This study demonstrated that areas with highest conservation priority now will not necessarily be optimal when planning for future change, such as coral range expansions. Furthermore, we showed that incorporating spatio‐temporal connections into spatial prioritization achieves objectives of simultaneously conserving corals in the current climate and facilitating their expansions as SST rises.

Differential establishment potential of species predicts a shift in coral assemblage structure across a biogeographic barrier

“…Therefore, understanding the relative importance of different underlying processes, such as tolerance of environmental conditions and dispersal limitation, for influencing the assemblage composition of these reefs will help determine their potential suitability as a refuge in the future (Beger et al ). For instance, a reef with an assemblage determined by environmental conditions could serve as a good candidate for protection as a future refuge, whilst one that is dispersal limited would have negligible potential to act as a refuge even if environmental conditions become suitable (Makino et al ).…”

Short-term population dynamics of high-latitude <i>Alveopora japonica</i> in Tateyama Bay, Japan

“…These findings are important in the context of increasing typhoon intensity (Oouchi et al 2006). With coral colonies threatened by both sand and mechanical damage, and the need for the protection of temperate coastal ecosystems, including temperate corals (Makino et al 2014), it is essential that we increase our knowledge of short-term population dynamics of temperate corals. …”

How to manipulate landscapes to improve the potential for range expansion

“…; Makino et al . ). One method has been proposed that is capable of selecting reserves that form functionally connected strands through time and space for multiple species (Phillips et al .…”