Spatiotemporal Dynamic Changes and Prediction of Wild Fruit Forests in Emin County, Xinjiang, China, Based on Random Forest and PLUS Model

Abstract

As an important ecosystem, the wild fruit forest in the Tianshan Mountains is one of the origins of many fruit trees in the world. The wild fruit forest in Emin County, Xinjiang, China, was taken as the research area, the spatial and temporal distribution of the wild fruit forest was inverted using random forest and PLUS models, and the 2027 distribution pattern of the wild fruit forest was simulated and predicted. From 2007 to 2013, damage to the wild fruit forest from tourism and overgrazing was very serious, and the area occupied by the wild fruit forest decreased rapidly from 9.59 km2 to 7.66 km2. From 2013 to 2020, suitable temperatures and reasonable tourism management provided strong conditions for the rejuvenation of wild fruit forests. The distance of the center of gravity of the wild fruit forest increased, and the density of distribution of the wild fruit forest in the northwest direction of the study area also increased. It is predicted that the wild fruit forest in the study area will show a steady and slowly increasing trend in places far away from tourist areas and with more complex terrain. It is suggested that non-permanent fences be set up as buffer zones between wild fruit forests, ensuring basic maintenance of wild fruit forests, limiting human disturbance such as overgrazing, and reducing the risk of soil erosion.