Spatiotemporal Evolution and Future of Carbon Storage in Resource-Based Chinese Province: A Case Study from Shanxi Using PLUS–InVEST Model Prediction

Abstract

Resource exploitation markedly alters land use and ecological carbon storage, posing risks to carbon sinks and food security. This study analyzes land-use change from 1990 to 2020 in the resource-based province of Shanxi, China. By introducing a mineral resource driver, the PLUS model was used to predict four scenarios: natural development (ND), cropland protection (CP), ecological protection (EP), and dual protection of ecology and cropland (DP). The spatial and temporal evolutions of carbon storage were then analyzed using the InVEST model. Forests were predominantly distributed in mountainous areas, with croplands in southerly and central flat areas, construction lands in and around cities, and mining lands sporadically distributed across Shanxi. From 1990 to 2020, croplands and grasslands decreased, while forest, construction, and mining lands increased. Carbon storage decreased continuously, with a total loss of 15.1 × 106 t. High-value carbon storage areas were in the Lüliang, Taihang, and Taiyue Mountains, and low-value areas were in the more populous central and southern regions. Carbon storage was predicted to decline by 2035 under the ND and CP scenarios and to exceed that of 2020 under the EP and DP scenarios. The DP scenario projected an increase of 4.93 × 106 t in carbon storage by 2035. The DP scenario realizes the protection of carbon sinks in resource-based areas and maintains food security, providing a theoretical reference for achieving carbon neutrality and high-quality sustainable development in Shanxi Province.