Spatiotemporal Trends And Variability Analysis Of Rainfall And Temperature Over Benin Metropolitan Region, Edo State, Nigeria

Balogun, Verere Sido; Ekpenkhio, E.; Ebena, B.

doi:10.24057/2071-9388-2022-001

Cited by 3 publications

References 36 publications

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Assessing rainfall and extreme weather variability for climate resilient agricultural production systems in Nigeria

Olayide,

Alabi,

Oyedepo

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Nigeria's food production heavily relies on smallholder rainfed agriculture. Unfortunately, this sector is highly vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change, such as floods and droughts. It is crucial to examine the frequency, intensity, and magnitude of these events and develop effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to ensure the resilience of Nigeria's agricultural system. This study analyses rainfall variability in Nigeria's agroecological zones (AEZs) over the past sixty years. The research evaluates annual, quarterly, and seasonal rainfall patterns and uses the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to examine drought and flood frequency and intensity. The study's findings reveal that the period from 1981 to 1990 experienced the weakest rainfall patterns across all AEZs, while the best occurred from 1961 to 1970. The humid forest zone consistently received the highest rainfall, although with a declining trend over the decades. Conversely, the Arid/Sahel and Semi-arid zones exhibited the lowest with a slight upward trend in precipitation, while others experienced a reduction. Spatial analysis of drought patterns also reveals that most of the AEZs face high drought risks, with over 65% of the country experiencing a considerable increase in drought in the last three decades. The rainfall pattern was less erratic in zones of lower latitudes than in the higher altitudes. Heavy rainfall events exceeding 10 mm and 20 mm revealed a decreasing trend from the Arid to the Humid Forest zone. Extreme weather events have significant economic consequences. Policymakers and stakeholders must take action to ensure climate resilient and sustainable agricultural production systems.

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Assessing rainfall and extreme weather variability for climate resilient agricultural production systems in Nigeria

Olayide,

Alabi,

Oyedepo

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Reveals of a Shifting Climate: A Regional Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Trends at Mymensingh Division in Bangladesh (1950-2020)

Haque,

Hassan

2024

Preprint

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Professional resource allocation and planning in response to climate change in developing regions such as the Mymensingh Division of Bangladesh requires comprehension of trends in temperature and precipitation over long periods of forecast. This is the reason why this study examines the temperature and precipitation from the years 1950 to 2020 in order to provide a reasonable view of local climatic conditions and facilitate the policymaking process. By using climactic research unit (CRU) TS data sets in creation of raster layers using ArcGIS tools we undertook data processing research which involved statistical analysis methods. Mann-Kendall test has generated a very encouraging result as it has found relative increase in annual precipitation, averaging about 2760.52 mm and oscillating between 1752 mm and 4338 mm. Kendall’s tau correlation τ = 0.156, p-value = 0.024, shows a possible change over a period of time. Slope of sen demonstrated that precipitation regime has increase by 1.9 mm annually. The analyses of autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation confirmed that the precipitation data upside and trends are clearly delineated. Progressive warming trend as regards the average annual temperature was observed, as the years went by, the average annual temperature increased from 24.77 0 c to 25.170c, more so in recent years where there have been high degree of warming. This study highlights the need for ongoing climate and the enhancement of global warming policies to prevent worsening situations.

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Application of Vector Autoregression (Var) on Modelling and Forecasting Average Monthly Rainfall and Temperature

Musa,

Ahmad,

Maijamaa

2024

lbr

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Rainfall and temperature have become the two most natural factor that determines the standard of agricultural production. Sensitivity in climate variability over a long period of time need to be recorded, looking at difference in temporal and spatial scale. The need to understand the nature of the differences in the climate system and their impact on the society and environment is of great interest. This paper tends to apply Vector auto-regressive on modelling and forecasting average monthly rainfall and temperature in Nigeria. A monthly data sourced from World Bank climate portal, from January 1986 to December 2021. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) a test used to test for stationarity of the trends. Also, the criterion, Alkaike information criterion (AIC) is considered in the model lag selection and the VAR model favored VAR at lag 8. Ordinary least square has been used to estimate the VAR model parameter. Granger causality shows a bi-lateral causation from the temperature during rainfall and from rainfall during different temperature. “Impulse Response Functions” (IRF) and “Forecast Error Variance Decomposition” (FEVD) were further carried out as a structural analysis between the two variables, it revealed that, rainfall and temperature are interrelated.

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Spatiotemporal Trends And Variability Analysis Of Rainfall And Temperature Over Benin Metropolitan Region, Edo State, Nigeria

Cited by 3 publications

References 36 publications

Assessing rainfall and extreme weather variability for climate resilient agricultural production systems in Nigeria

Assessing rainfall and extreme weather variability for climate resilient agricultural production systems in Nigeria

Reveals of a Shifting Climate: A Regional Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Trends at Mymensingh Division in Bangladesh (1950-2020)

Application of Vector Autoregression (Var) on Modelling and Forecasting Average Monthly Rainfall and Temperature

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