Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in Henan Province Based on RClimDex Model

Abstract

Global warming has led to an increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events worldwide. The extreme precipitation of Henan Province in central China usually occurs in summer, with the climate transition from the northern subtropical to the warm temperate climate. Compared with the study of extreme precipitation events in other regions, the study of Henan Province pays less attention. In order to systematically understand the spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in Henan Province, this study applied RClimDex model to obtain nine extreme precipitation indices based on daily precipitation data from 90 meteorological stations from 1981 to 2020. Linear propensity estimation, M-K mutation test, Morlet wavelet analysis, and geostatistical analysis were used to investigate the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the extreme precipitation indices in the region. The results indicated that continuous dry days (CDD), number of heavy rain days (R20mm), maximum daily precipitation (Rx1day), maximum precipitation for 5 consecutive days (Rx5day), and precipitation intensity (SDII) showed an overall increasing trend, but none passed the significance test (p > 0.01). Extremely strong precipitation (R99p) and Rx5day changed abruptly in 1994, and Rx1day and SDII changed abruptly in 2004. The seven extreme precipitation indices, except CDD and continuous wet days (CWD), had a 30-year cyclical pattern. The multi-year average of extreme precipitation indices showed that the CDD gradually decreased from north to south, CWD and R20mm gradually increased from north to south. Rx1day and Rx5day gradually increased from northwest to southeast, and SDII increased from west to east. The results can contribute valuable insights to extreme precipitation trends and future climate predictions in Henan Province and provide scientific support for coping with extreme precipitation changes and disaster prevention.