Spring Disappearance in the Indian Himalayas: A Geo-physical Appraisal

Abstract

Due to climate change and human activity, the drop in spring-water discharge poses a serious issue in the Himalayan region, especially in the higher section of Himachal Pradesh. This study used topographic index assumptions, complex geological circumstances, and rainfall data from 1901 to 2021 to understand the decrease in spring-water discharge. It was determined which climate parameter was most closely correlated with spring discharge volumes using a multi-linear correlation plot. Based on 40 years of daily average rainfall data, a rainfall-runoff model was utilised to predict and assess trends in spring-water discharge using the MIKE 11 NAM hydrological model. The model's effectiveness was effectively proved by the validation results (NSE=0.79, R2=0.944, RMSE=0.23, PBIAS=32%). Consequently, spring disappearance directly impacted hydropower electricity generation, the entire groundwater regime, and agriculture productivity as well as hampering livelihood in the prolonged dry season indirectly. A possible solution is to preserve rainwater in smaller reservoirs or water tanks during the rainy season, to build resilience for the dependent population.