Stability or Decline? Class, Religion and the Vote in Germany

Elff, Martin; Roßteutscher, Sigrid

doi:10.1080/09644008.2011.554109

Cited by 49 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…among older voters, whereas the Greens seem to be attractive among younger voters (see, e.g., Jun, 2011;Elff and Rossteutscher, 2011). A series of further interesting effects have been selected by the Lasso, including the strength of both the Leftist Party and the Social-Democratic Party SPD among voters being members of a labor union, or the positive effect of having a Catholic affiliation on supporting the CDU.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…This result may indicate that the SPD has become less effective in attracting and mobilizing its traditional target and that the class cleavage is more effectively represented by the Leftist Party. The reason why the social cleavage seems to find less expression in the SPD can be seen as the result of unpopular labor market reforms (Hartz IV) initiated by Chancellor Schröder in 1998 (see, e.g., Elff and Rossteutscher, 2011;Anderson and Hecht, 2012;Lees, 2012). Also note that our results suggest that the persistent relevance of traditional cleavages does not as strongly apply to religious versus secular divisions.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Modeling electoral choices in multiparty systems with high-dimensional data: A regularized selection of parameters using the lasso approach

Mauerer

Pößnecker

Thurner

et al. 2015

Journal of Choice Modelling

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The increasing popularity of the Spatial Theory of Voting has given rise to the frequent usage of multinomial logit/probit models with alternative-specific covariates. The flexibility of these models comes along with one severe drawback: the proliferation of coefficients, resulting in high-dimensional and difficult-to-interpret models. In particular, choice models in a party system with J parties result in maximally J − 1 parameters for chooser-specific attributes (e.g., sex, age). For the specification of alternative-specific attributes (e.g., issue distances), maximally J parameters can be estimated. Thus, a model of party choice with five parties based on three issues and ten voter attributes already produces 59 possible coefficients.As soon as we allow for interaction effects to detect segment-specific reactions to issues, the situation is even aggravated. In order to systematically identify relevant predictors in spatial voting models, we derive and use for the first time Lasso-type regularized parameter selection techniques that take into account both individualand alternative-specific variables. Most importantly, our new algorithm can handle the alternative-wise specification of issue distances. Applying the Lasso method to the 2009 German Parliamentary Election, we demonstrate that our approach massively reduces the model's complexity and simplifies its interpretation. Lassopenalization clearly outperforms the simple ML estimator.

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

Modeling electoral choices in multiparty systems with high-dimensional data: A regularized selection of parameters using the lasso approach

Mauerer

Pößnecker

Thurner

et al. 2015

Journal of Choice Modelling

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show abstract

“…Previous analyses suggests that the non-religious were more likely to vote Green but that also Protestants were more likely to vote Green than Roman Catholics (cf. Elff and Rossteutscher 2011). While analysis of the GLES data confirms this, the main dimension that had a more pervasive impact in the multi-variate analysis was a measurement of the degree of religiosity.…”

Section: Source: Own Calculations Based On Post-election Survey Of Thmentioning

confidence: 77%

The perennial success of the German Greens

Rüdig

2012

Environmental Politics

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The German Greens achieved a record result in the federal elections of 2009. The paper explores a range of factors that might explain the success of the party. Using both qualitative and quantitative methods, it is argued that the excellent electoral result of 2009 was not an isolated phenomenon but is in line with a long-term growth of green electoral support which has a strong generational basis. A ‘feminization’ and ‘greying’ of green voters can be diagnosed. Despite the party’s effort to emphasize a range of economic and social issues in its campaigning, the chief factors explaining green voting remain environmental concern and opposition to nuclear energy

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“…gained relevance in recent decades, belonging to a social class remains a relevant predictor for individual party preferences, not least in Germany (e.g. Elff and Rossteutscher 2011;Van der Brug 2010;Pappi and Shikano 2002). 2.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%