State Reliability of Wind Turbines Based on XGBoost–LSTM and Their Application in Northeast China

Abstract

The use of renewable energy sources, such as wind power, has received more attention in China, and wind turbine system reliability has become more important. Based on existing research, this study proposes a state reliability prediction model for wind turbine systems based on XGBoost–LSTM. By considering the dynamic variability of the weight fused by the algorithm, under the irregular fluctuation of the same parameter with time in nonlinear systems, it reduces the algorithm defects in the prediction process. The improved algorithm is validated by arithmetic examples, and the results show that the root mean square error value (hereinafter abbreviated as RMSE) and the mean absolute error value (hereinafter abbreviated as MAPE) of the improved XGBoost–LSTM algorithm are decreased compared with those for the LSTM and XGBoost algorithms, among which the RMSE is reduced by 8.26% and 4.15% and the MAPE is reduced by 24.56% and 27.99%, respectively; its goodness-of-fit R2 value is closer to 1. This indicates that the algorithm proposed in this paper reduces the existing defects present in some current algorithms, and the prediction accuracy is effectively improved, which is of great value in improving the reliability of the system.