Statistical analysis and forecasting of cotton yield dynamics in Bukhara region

Abstract

Observations on some phenomena, the nature of which changes in time, are ordered sequences, which is called the time series. In the article, by the method of statistical analysis of time series, the statistical regularity of the series of dynamics of the average yield of cotton in the Bukhara region, the Republic of Uzbekistan (based on the materials of the CSO of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2001-2019) was studied. Point and interval estimates for the average cotton yield were built with a 95% guarantee, explicit types of trends were determined, and yields in the region were predicted for subsequent years. With the help of Durbin-Watson statistical criteria, it was found that the average cotton yield in the region has an autocorrelation dependence.