Statistical models to assess the health effects and to forecast ground-level ozone

Schlink, Uwe; Herbarth, Olf; Richter, Matthias; Dorling, Stephen; Nunnari, G.; Cawley, Gavin C.; Pelikán, Emil

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.12.002

Cited by 113 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…They were widely used during many years and showed satisfactory results, at least for ozone daily maxima (Zeldin and Thomas, 1975;Simpson and Layton, 1983;Robeson and Steyn, 1990). On the other hand, very crude and uncertain (no boundary conditions for example), these systems were gradually less used even if many systems already exist and use sophisticated numerical approaches such as neural networks for air quality short term forecast (Kolehmainen et al, 2001;Chaloulakou et al, 2003;Ibarra-Berastegi et al, 2008;Pfeiffer et al, 2009) and health impacts (Schlink et al, 2006). This paper deals with the "deterministic" atmospheric composition forecast in Europe.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

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Bessagnet

2010

Ann. Geophys.

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Abstract.The atmospheric composition is a societal issue and, following new European directives, its forecast is now recommended to quantify the air quality. It concerns both gaseous and particles species, identified as potential problems for health. In Europe, numerical systems providing daily air quality forecasts are numerous and, mostly, operated by universities. Following recent European research projects (GEMS, PROMOTE), an organization of the air quality forecast is currently under development. But for the moment, many platforms exist, each of them with strengths and weaknesses. This overview paper presents all existing systems in Europe and try to identify the main remaining gaps in the air quality forecast knowledge. As modeling systems are now able to reasonably forecast gaseous species, and in a lesser extent aerosols, the future directions would concern the use of these systems with ensemble approaches and satellite data assimilation. If numerous improvements were recently done on emissions and chemistry knowledge, improvements are still needed especially concerning meteorology, which remains a weak point of forecast systems. Future directions will also concern the use of these forecast tools to better understand and quantify the air pollution impact on health.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

Menut

Bessagnet

2010

Ann. Geophys.

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“…Tropospheric ozone is an important trace gas controlling the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere with well documented adverse effects on human health (Schlink et al, 2006), agriculture (Fuhrer et al, 2003) and natural ecosystems (Scebba, et al, 2005). Tropospheric ozone chemistry includes a large set of complex photochemical reactions involving NO x (=NO 2 +NO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) (Crutzen, 1988;Penket, 1988;Seinfeld and Pandis, 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal regional air quality simulations over Europe in present climate: near surface ozone sensitivity to external meteorological forcing

et al. 2010

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Abstract. Regional climate-air quality decadal simulations over Europe were carried out with the RegCM3/CAMx modeling system for the time slice 1991-2000, in order to study the impact of different meteorological forcing on surface ozone. The RegCM3 regional climate model was firstly constrained by the ERA40 reanalysis dataset which is considered as an experiment with perfect meteorological boundary conditions and then it was constrained by the global circulation model ECHAM5. A number of meteorological parameters were examined including the 500 mb geopotential height, solar radiation, temperature, cloud liquid water path, planetary boundary layer height and surface wind. The different RegCM meteorological forcing resulted in changes of near surface ozone over Europe ranging between ± 4 ppb for winter and summer. The area showing the greatest sensitivity in O 3 during winter is central and southern Europe while in summer central north continental Europe. The different meteorological forcing impacts on the atmospheric circulation, which in turn affects cloudiness and solar radiation, temperature, wind patterns and the meteorology depended biogenic emissions. For comparison reasons, the impact of chemical boundary conditions on surface ozone was additionally examined with a series of sensitivity studies, indicating that surface ozone changes are comparable to those caused by the different meteorological forcing. These findings suggest that, Correspondence to: E. Katragkou (katragou@auth.gr) when it comes to regional climate-air quality simulations, the selection of external meteorological forcing can be as important as the selection of adequate chemical lateral boundary conditions.

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“…One approach that has proven effective in measuring the effects of meteorological factors on air pollution is statistical modeling [26]. Statistical models are well suited for quantifying and visualizing the nature of pollutant response to individual meteorological parameters as they directly fit to the patterns that arise from the observed data [27].…”

Section: Analysis Of Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Meteorological Variables on Air Pollutants Variation in Arid Climates

Radaideh¹

2017

J Environ Anal Toxicol

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Statistical models to assess the health effects and to forecast ground-level ozone

Cited by 113 publications

References 25 publications

Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

Decadal regional air quality simulations over Europe in present climate: near surface ozone sensitivity to external meteorological forcing

Effect of Meteorological Variables on Air Pollutants Variation in Arid Climates

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