Staying ahead of invaders: using species distribution modeling to predict alien species’ potential niche shifts

Battini, Nicolás; Farias, Nahuel Emiliano; Giachetti, Clara Belen; Schwindt, Evangelina; Bortolus, Alejandro

doi:10.3354/meps12878

Cited by 40 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…Although the niche dynamic categories (abandonment and pioneering) unlike niche unfilling and expansion cannot be considered as true shifts in the fundamental niche of a species because they don’t result from the action of ecological processes and simply reflect the lack of opportunity in one of the regions lacking the particular type of climate 24,37 . Thus, evaluation of true niche shifts (expansion and unfilling) during the invasion process warrants clear comparison with respect to analogous environment only, so as to avoid analytical artefacts or conceptual differences and/or interpretations 32,54,55 . Also, till date, no specialized tool or package which can plot the different niche dynamic categories solely based on the analogous (intersecting) climates is available.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…index() implemented in the ecospat 107 package. This approach was aimed to help distinguish between true niche shift (unfilling and expansion) and shift caused due to the availability of climates in only one of the two regions being compared (abandonment and pioneering) 24,32 . Niche unfilling means the environmental conditions colonized by a species in its native range but not in the invaded range despite the presence of similar environmental conditions in the latter.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many research studies have reported niche shifts to be rare in the invaded regions of invasive alien species 27,28 ; but some recent studies have reported the frequent occurrence of niche shifts among the invasive alien plants 24,29–31 . The reason behind these contrasting results mostly lie in conceptual differences associated with environmental availability 32 , as several studies have taken into consideration the nature of environment 28,33,34 , while others have not 29,35,36 . Therefore, a better understanding of the conceptual and methodological framework underlying invasion niche dynamics may enhance our ability in evaluating the true niche shifts 24,32,37 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The reason behind these contrasting results mostly lie in conceptual differences associated with environmental availability 32 , as several studies have taken into consideration the nature of environment 28,33,34 , while others have not 29,35,36 . Therefore, a better understanding of the conceptual and methodological framework underlying invasion niche dynamics may enhance our ability in evaluating the true niche shifts 24,32,37 . More specifically the niche dynamics of invasive species comprises of five categories, with niche unfilling, stability and expansion occuring in analogous environmental conditions and abandonment and pioneering found in non-analogous environments (see Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change

Ahmad

Khuroo

Charles

et al. 2019

Sci Rep

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In an era of climate change, biological invasions by alien species represent one of the main anthropogenic drivers of global environmental change. The present study, using an ensemble modelling approach, has mapped current and future global distribution of the invasive Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) and predicted the invasion hotspots under climate change. The current potential distribution of Ox-eye Daisy coincides well with the actual distribution records, thereby indicating robustness of our model. The model predicted a global increase in the suitable habitat for the potential invasion of this species under climate change. Oceania was shown to be the high-risk region to the potential invasion of this species under both current and future climate change scenarios. The results revealed niche conservatism for Australia and Northern America, but contrastingly a niche shift for Africa, Asia, Oceania and Southern America. The global distribution modelling and risk assessment of Ox-eye Daisy has immediate implications in mitigating its invasion impacts under climate change, as well as predicting the global invasion hotspots and developing region-specific invasion management strategies. Interestingly, the contrasting patterns of niche dynamics shown by this invasive plant species provide novel insights towards disentangling the different operative mechanisms underlying the process of biological invasions at the global scale.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change

Ahmad

Khuroo

Charles

et al. 2019

Sci Rep

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“…The method is one of the most widely used SDM algorithms due to its high predictive accuracy and efficiency in modelling range shifts under future climate change scenarios (Bucklin et al., 2015; Elith et al., 2006, 2011; Hijmans & Graham, 2006; Pearson, 2007). It has also recently been shown to outperform other modelling techniques in accurately predicting invasive species distributions (Battini, Farías, Giachetti, Schwindt, & Bortolus, 2019). This was complemented with SDM using a suite of other techniques within biomod2, another well‐known and widely used SDM tool (Hao, Elith, Guillera‐Arroita, & Lahoz‐Monfort, 2019) that was selected because it allows multiple models to be run on the same training and testing datasets to better ensure the consistency and accuracy of resultant ensemble models.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

What and where? Predicting invasion hotspots in the Arctic marine realm

Goldsmit

McKindsey

Schlegel

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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The risk of aquatic invasions in the Arctic is expected to increase with climate warming, greater shipping activity and resource exploitation in the region. Planktonic and benthic marine aquatic invasive species (AIS) with the greatest potential for invasion and impact in the Canadian Arctic were identified and the 23 riskiest species were modelled to predict their potential spatial distributions at pan-Arctic and global scales. Modelling was conducted under present environmental conditions and two intermediate future (2050 and 2100) global warming scenarios. Invasion hotspots-regions of the Arctic where habitat is predicted to be suitable for a high number of potential AIS-were located in Hudson Bay, Northern Grand Banks/Labrador, Chukchi/Eastern Bering seas and Barents/White seas, suggesting that these regions could be more vulnerable to invasions. Globally, both benthic and planktonic organisms showed a future poleward shift in suitable habitat. At a pan-Arctic scale, all organisms showed suitable habitat gains under future conditions. However, at the global scale, habitat loss was predicted in more tropical regions for some taxa, particularly most planktonic species. Results from the present study can help prioritize management efforts in the face of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem. Moreover, this particular approach provides information to identify present and future high-risk areas for AIS in response to global warming. K E Y W O R D S aquatic invasive species, climate warming, ensemble models, habitat suitability, risk of invasion, shipping, species distribution model This is an open access article under the terms of the Creat ive Commo ns Attri bution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2020 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Fisheries and Oceans Canada | 4753 GOLDSMIT eT aL. Lockwood, 2013; Simberloff et al., 2013). Estimates suggest that their presence may entail costs of up to 12% of the gross domestic product of affected countries (Marbuah, Gren, & McKie, 2014). The greatest numbers of aquatic invasions have been documented in temperate regions (Ruiz & Hewitt, 2009). However, high latitude areas are generally warming at a faster rate than other areas (Niemi et al., 2019; Overland et al., 2019) and various climate change scenarios predict that the ice-free season will continue to lengthen (Barnhart,

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New invasive predator reduces the abundance of native prey in a cold‐temperate marine fouling community

Battini

Giachetti

Castro

et al. 2021

Aquatic Conservation

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Invasive species threaten the conservation of marine environments, and urgent management strategies are needed to prevent their introduction, establishment and spread. Specifically, marine invasive predators destabilize ecological interactions and alter community structure and function. However, most of the evidence showing the effect of these predators is restricted to a few species and regions, while for others the information remains scarce. This study experimentally evaluated the ecological effects of the sea slug Pleurobranchaea maculata, a recently introduced invasive predator, on the fouling communities of a cold‐temperate port in the South‐western Atlantic. The results show that increasing predation pressure reduces significantly the abundance of sea anemones, which are among the preferred prey items. This study reveals new evidence to help better understand the effects of P. maculata on the biological communities of a recently invaded region. Furthermore, it provides the first experimental evidence supporting the hypothesis that marine invasive predators can induce a significant decrease in the abundance of native species in benthic communities of cold‐temperate marine environments in the South‐western Atlantic.

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Staying ahead of invaders: using species distribution modeling to predict alien species’ potential niche shifts

Cited by 40 publications

References 76 publications

Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change

Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change

What and where? Predicting invasion hotspots in the Arctic marine realm

New invasive predator reduces the abundance of native prey in a cold‐temperate marine fouling community

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